Champions League-chasing Freiburg travel to 14th-placed St Pauli in Saturday's gameweek 22 Bundesliga action at Millerntor-Stadion, seeking to avenge September's 3-0 defeat to the promoted side.
The hosts' three-match unbeaten run was snapped by RB Leipzig last weekend, and Alexander Blessin's men aim to return to winning ways against a Freiburg side searching for a third top-flight victory on the trot to boost European qualification prospects.
Match preview
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St Pauli went into last week's Bundesliga match at Leipzig seeking to go undefeated for four top-flight fixtures in a row for the first time since a five-match sequence in January-February 2011, only to come unstuck in the 2-0 loss.
The upshot of that defeat and Union Berlin's 4-0 success at fourth-bottom Hoffenheim saw Blessin's team slide to 14th ahead of round 22, though Kiezkicker's superior goal difference (-6) compared to the four sides below them — Hoffenheim (-18), Heidenheim (-18), Holstein Kiel (-21) and VfL Bochum (-27) — gives them that advantage if goals for and against decide the relegation battle.
While the Neighbourhood Kickers have a seven-point buffer on Heidenheim in the relegation playoff spot and an eight-point gap on Kiel in 17th, Blessin's men could easily be sucked back into the relegation conversation if results dip in the campaign's concluding weeks as they did before the recently ended three-match unbeaten run.
That sequence preceded a run of six defeats in eight before the Kiezkicker notched seven points from nine, and St Pauli seek to return to winning ways after last week's setback in Leipzig to create further separation from the bottom four clubs.
That outcome is feasible despite the 12-point difference and eight-place gap between the clubs, given the precedent in this fixture which could fill the travelling support with dread before Saturday's kickoff.
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Freiburg's only win over Saturday's opponent came in April 1997 — a 4-0 success — but have since failed to beat St Pauli, with the reverse fixture in Baden-Wurttemberg a 3-0 defeat, Kiezkicker's biggest-ever Bundesliga away victory.
The Breisgau Brazilians aim to record only their second top-flight success over the Neighbourhood Kickers, against whom they have their third-worst league win percentage (11%) — only against Bayern Munich (8%) and Borussia Dortmund (10%) have they suffered worse results.
However, a pair of 1-0 successes over relegation-threatened Bochum and Heidenheim have seen Julian Schuster's team secure back-to-back victories in the German top flight for the first time since October and third time this term; however, they are yet to claim three straight league wins in 2024-25.
Freiburg last tasted success in three consecutive Bundesliga games in December 2023, when they secured a pair of 1-0 wins over Mainz and Wolfsburg before notching a 2-0 triumph over FC Cologne, but such a run has eluded the Breisgau Brazilians since.
With the away side's recent run placing them sixth, two points behind Stuttgart in fifth and three adrift of Leipzig, fans of the club are daring to dream of a maiden participation in the Champions League, although they cannot end in the top four this weekend due to a significantly inferior goal difference.
Contrarily, losing could see the sixth-placed side slide in the standings with Mainz a point behind, Borussia Monchengladbach two adrift and the pair of Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen trailing by three.
Team News
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St Pauli are dealing with a glut of injuries, with Karol Mets (knee), Robert Wagner (thigh), Sascha Burchert (groin), Simon Zoller (calf) and Soren Ahlers (knee) not expected back until later this month, while Manolis Saliakas (thigh) and Morgan Guilavogui (wrist) are possibly missing for a few more weeks.
While no St Pauli player has scored more match-winning goals than Johannes Eggestein (two), the absence of Guilavogui means Kiezkicker must do without a player with three home goals this term and two match-opening strikes.
Freiburg are not dealing with as many injuries; Florent Muslija (ankle) and Max Rosenfelder (thigh) will be assessed before Saturday, while Daniel-Kofi Kyereh (knee) and Bruno Ogbus (Achilles) are expected absentees.
Although Vincenzo Grifo moved level with Ritsu Doan on six top-flight goals last weekend, the wide attacker trails his Japanese teammate for match-winning goals, with Doan's four behind Bayern's Harry Kane (seven) and Jonathan Burkardt among players currently in the league.
Four of Doan's six league goals have been away from home, doubly highlighting the winger's threat before the gameweek 22 contest.
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Nemeth; Treu, Irvine, Sands, Van der Heyden; Saad, Eggestein, Weisshaupt
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Atubolu; Sildillia, Ginter, Lienhart, Gunter; Eggestein, Hofler; Doan, Rohl, Grifo; Holer
We say: St Pauli 2-1 Freiburg
Although Freiburg ended a seven-match winless run away from home (five defeats) with a recent 1-0 success at struggling Bochum, St Pauli head into gameweek 22's fixture on a two-match unbeaten run on home soil and the psychological edge over the Breisgau Brazilians.
Thus, the 14th-placed hosts should continue their impressive Bundesliga record against Saturday's visitors by securing a marginal triumph.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
