Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 50.12%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Mafra had a probability of 23.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Mafra win it was 1-0 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.