Hoping to start the New Year with a win and move away from relegation danger in the process, Tondela host Famalicao in their first outing of 2021.
On the other hand, Famalicao know that securing all three points would temporarily take them as high as seventh, so a victory is of the essence for both teams.
Match preview
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Tondela have won just one of their last five league games and currently occupy 16th place heading into the game at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
Two red cards for Pako Ayestaran's men in a 2-0 defeat versus Nacional last time out took their tally up to five for the season and four in the last three games.
They lead the division in that category and must restore discipline within the camp if their four-game winless streak is to come to an end.
The team from Viseu District has experienced mixed fortunes at home this campaign with two wins, two draws and two losses from six home league games so far.
Just like their hosts, Famalicao have also recorded only one victory but have picked up one more point in the five league games leading up to Sunday's meeting between the teams.
Coincidentally, both sides last won a Primeira Liga game on the same day with home victories against Santa Clara and Maritimo respectively.
Galos have failed to score in three of their last five games in all competitions but should fancy going up against a side that has conceded an average of two goals per game in that time.
Joao Pedro Sousa's men have been dismal away from home this season and are winless on the road since defeating Belenenses back in September.
Tondela Primeira Liga form: LDLLWL
Tondela form (all competitions): LDLLLW
Famalicao Primeira Liga form: LDDLWL
Famalicao form (all competitions): LDLDLW
Team News
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Tondela will have to cope with the absences of Bebeto and Naoufel Khacef after they both received their marching orders in the defeat to Nacional.
Young goalkeeper Joel Sousa is also unavailable as he is still in isolation after testing positive for coronavirus.
Fernando Valenzuela's involvement is still uncertain as he continues recovery from a muscle injury that has kept him out of action for the past three weeks.
Aside from that, Famalicao have a full squad to pick from and will hope to come out on top at the sound of the final whistle.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Martinez, Tavares, Medioub; Ferreira, Augusto, Pedro, Murillo; Agra, Barbosa, Gonzalez
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Junior; Dias, Babic, Queiros, Morer; Assuncao, Jaime, Pereyra, Neto, Lameiras; Del Campo
We say: Tondela 0-1 Famalicao
Both teams have struggled in front of goal lately but Famalicao have been more potent throughout the season so a narrow victory looks likely here.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 44.89%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 27.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.79%) and 1-2 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
