Tondela will be seeking to snap their four-game losing streak on Thursday when they play host to Mafra in the first leg of their Taca de Portugal semi-final clash at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
The Segunda Liga outfit, on the other hand, were denied a third win on the bounce versus Penafiel over the weekend and will be looking to quickly bounce back from that result.
Match preview
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Spanish tactician Pako Ayestaran was left disappointed once again as he watched his Tondela side fall to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of a rejuvenated Famalicao last Saturday.
Following an uneventful first half at the Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, the game sparked into life after the break as Simon Banza and Joao Carlos Teixeira scored in a four-minute spell to put the Vila Nova in a commanding position before Daniel dos Anjos pulled one back for the visitors.
This was a fourth consecutive Primeira Liga defeat for Tondela, who have also managed just two wins since the turn of the year, losing five and claiming two draws from nine league outings.
However, the CTD Auriverdes, who are bottom but one in the Primeira Liga table, will be hoping to end this dry spell as they turn their focus to the Taca de Portugal, where they have cruised to the semi-finals with relative ease.
After kicking off their cup campaign with a 2-1 win over lower-tier Camacho, Tondela saw off Leixoes and Estoril Praia in the two subsequent rounds, claiming 3-1 victories on both occasions, before grinding out a 1-0 win over Rio Ave in January's quarter-final clash.
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Like the hosts, Mafra have also stormed to the semi-finals of the Taca de Portugal, claiming five wins from five, while scoring 12 goals and keeping three clean sheets in that time.
Particularly impressive was their display in the round of 16 and quarter-finals, where they came out unscathed against Primeira Liga sides Moreirense and Portimonense respectively, scoring seven goals and conceding three over both games.
Mafra head into Thursday's game fresh off the back of a 1-1 draw with Penafiel when the sides squared off at the Estadio Municipal de Mafra in round 24 of the Segunda Liga last Saturday.
Prior to that, Ricardo Sousa's men ended their five-game winless run with a thrilling 3-2 victory over Porto B on February 12, before sailing to a 3-1 win at Trofense eight days later.
With 33 points from 24 games, Mafra currently sits in eighth place in the Segunda Liga standings, level on points with Leixoes and 12 points adrift of Rio Ave in the promotion playoffs spot.
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Team News
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Ayestaran will be unable to call upon the services of Jota Goncalves, who has been out of action since last September through a severe knee injury.
He is joined on the CTD Auriverdes' injury table by Italian midfielder Simone Muratore, who sustained an injury in October's game against Belenenses.
Having started off the bench in last weekend's game against Famalicao, Anjos staked his claim for a starting role with his 92nd-minute strike and the 26-year-old could lead the line on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Guilherme, who is currently Mafra's top scorer in the Segunda Liga with seven goals, was rested against Penafiel last time out and we expect the 30-year-old to make a return to the fold.
He should team up with Leandrinho, Pedro Aparicio and Tomas Domingos in the midfield four of Sousa's preferred 3-4-3 formation, with Rodrigo Martins, Pedro Lucas and Vizela loanee Francis Cann leading the attack.
At the defensive end of the pitch, we should see Pedro Silva, Bura and Pedro Pacheco shielding Portuguese goalkeeper Miguel Santos between the sticks.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Almeida, Quaresma, Alves, Khacef; Undabarrena, Augusto; Boselli, Barbosa, Agra; Anjos
Mafra possible starting lineup:
Santos; Silva, Burton, Pacheco; Guilherme, Leandrinho, Aparicio, Domingos; Martins, Lucas; Cann
We say: Tondela 1-2 Mafra
While Tondela have endured an underwhelming Primeira Liga campaign so far, they will take pride in their run in the cup, where they have stormed to the semi-finals in style. However, with just one win and five losses from their last seven games, Mafra head into this one as slight favourites. The Segunda Liga side have also enjoyed a splendid cup run and appear to have hit their stride just before a crucial cup semi-final. We predict Mafra will come away with the win, albeit by a slender margin.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Mafra had a probability of 31.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Mafra win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.
