While Tondela have endured an underwhelming Primeira Liga campaign so far, they will take pride in their run in the cup, where they have stormed to the semi-finals in style. However, with just one win and five losses from their last seven games, Mafra head into this one as slight favourites. The Segunda Liga side have also enjoyed a splendid cup run and appear to have hit their stride just before a crucial cup semi-final. We predict Mafra will come away with the win, albeit by a slender margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Mafra had a probability of 31.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Mafra win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.
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