Metz have an opportunity to move out of relegation danger in Ligue 1 on Sunday when they travel to Stade de l'Aube for a date with Troyes.
ESTAC conceded two penalty kicks in their previous encounter, dropping a 2-1 decision to Angers, while Les Grenats gave up two second-half strikes to Nice, losing 2-0.
Match preview
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Troyes have shown that they are capable of competing and making life difficult for their opponents in Ligue 1, however, the results are rarely there to back it up, with only one win in their last six domestic encounters.
Their last match versus Angers showed that this is a team capable of creating opportunities, scoring after 11 minutes of play, before gifting the game to Les Scoistes with a pair of needless fouls inside the box.
Under their new manager Bruno Irles, Troyes have been a lot more aggressive, utilizing their speed out wide, which has produced plenty of chances.
To avoid going back down into the second tier of French football, Irles and his side need to start collecting three points versus the teams in the lower half of the table, as this group have lost six times against those clubs, more than any other Ligue 1 outfit this term.
They come into this contest unbeaten in five consecutive league fixtures at home to Metz and have not conceded to them over their previous three encounters.
Irles and his team will have had 14 days to fix the mistakes they made against Angers, and the former Monaco midfielder talked about improving their quality in the penalty area and being stingier defensively among other things.
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Stade Saint-Symphorien has not been particularly kind to the club from Lorraine, who have dropped each of their last two matches played there by a 2-0 score.
Frederic Antonetti's side will relish the opportunity to go on the road, where they have been much improved, earning a point in four of their last five encounters away from home.
The most obvious issue that has been plaguing this group has been their struggles in the final third, and while they have scored more goals than their weekend opponents (24-20), Les Grenats rarely seem to do enough to collect points after 90 minutes, as no team in the top flight has gone goalless in more games than them (eight).
For a team who have suffered numerous defensive mishaps throughout this campaign, conceding the second-most goals in the league (43), they have shown more poise in that department away from home, posting two clean sheets in their previous four road encounters, holding second-place Nice to only two shots on target.
Among the criticisms for this group, according to the pundits is a belief that they may not be tough enough to win their duels in the middle of the field, and the statistics show that they have had 42% possession or lower in five of their last six league games.
Metz have not allowed a first-half goal in five straight domestic affairs, although the final 45 minutes has been a real sore spot for them, conceding six times in those five contests.
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Team News
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Issa Kabore, who is on loan from Manchester City, will not be available for this game after Burkina Faso were eliminated from the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this week by Senegal (3-1), while Canadian Ike Ugbo joined the club on loan from Genk, Luka Ilic signed with the French side from the Sky Blues in the English Premier League (EPL), Jimmy Giraudon was loaned to Leganes in the Segunda Division in Spain and defender Erik Palmer-Brown arrived on a free transfer from the reigning EPL champions.
Adil Rami and Renaud Ripart have thigh issues, Suk Hyun-Jun and Youssouf Kone are dealing with unknown injuries, Karim Azamoum is out until early May due to an ACL problem and Metinho is still recovering from a shoulder injury.
A pair of poor challenges from Yoann Salmier and Giulian Biancone gifted Angers three points as they each conceded a penalty, after Brandon Domingues had put them in front in the 11th minute, his second of the campaign, while leading goalscorer Xavier Chavalerin and Gerson Rodrigues were the only ones to get their names on the scoresheet in their previous meeting versus Metz in September, winning 2-0.
Metz midfielder Pape Matar Sarr came on late for Senegal in their victory over Burkina Faso as they are looking for their first Africa Cup of Nations title, Kevin N'Doram has a broken foot, Nicolas de Preville continues to recover from a calf strain, Jemerson is nursing a thigh issue, while Matthieu Udol and Manuel Cabit are done for the season with an ACL and leg injury respectively.
Les Graoullys loaned Cheikh Sabaly and Lamine Gueye to Queville-Rouen and Paris FC, Guinean defender Fali Cande was signed from Portimonense, Warren Tchimbembe is on loan to Mirandes and Amine Bassi has been loaned to Barnsley for the remainder of the campaign.
Ibrahima Niane scored the last goal for Metz in their 1-0 win against Reims, his third of the season, as he is even with Farid Boulaya for third on the team, and one behind De Preville and Fabien Centonze.
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; Hajjam, Conte, Palmer-Brown, Kone; Chavalerin, Tardieu, Dingome, Domingues; Rodrigues, Ugbo
Metz possible starting lineup:
Caillard; Delaine, Bronn, Cande, Niakate; Pajot, Traore, Boulaya; Amadou; Mafouta, Joseph
We say: Troyes 2-0 Metz
Troyes should have done better versus Angers, but the good news for them is that Metz lack quality in the final third, meaning that even if they make a few mistakes, they might not be punished, while their press in past encounters has been effective.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 49.09%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Metz had a probability of 24.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (8.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
