Relegation-threatened Fortuna Dusseldorf will be looking to avoid dropping into the bottom two in the Bundesliga when they end their regular season away to Union Berlin on Saturday.
Dusseldorf are currently 16th in the table and cannot catch 15th-placed Augsburg, meaning that the best that they can hope for is a two-legged relegation playoff to stay in the division.
Match preview
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Securing their spot at this level of football was always going to be the number one priority for Union Berlin this season following their promotion from the second tier last term.
Die Eisernen have impressed many with their performances throughout the season, and they are safe from the threat of relegation, currently occupying 12th position in the table on 38 points.
Indeed, in their first ever campaign at this level, Union Berlin are eight points clear of Dusseldorf heading into the final set of fixtures, having picked up two wins from their last three matches.
Urs Fischer's side were in a spot of bother at the start of June when they drew with Schalke 04 but wins over Koln and Paderborn ensured that they would be present in the 2020-21 Bundesliga campaign.
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The situation is more complicated for Dusseldorf as outright survival is beyond the club, meaning that a two-legged relegation playoff against 2. Bundesliga's third-placed side could be on the agenda.
That said, Dusseldorf would be automatically relegated this weekend if they lose against Union Berlin and 17th-placed Wolfsburg collect all three points against Koln.
There is also a scenario where Uwe Rosler's side could draw and still be relegated although that would rely on Werder winning by a four-goal margin in order for the necessary swing in goal difference to occur.
Flingeraner have actually only lost one of their last four in the Bundesliga, picking up points against RB Leipzig and Augsburg in their last two matches.
They have the worst away record in the league this season with just 12 points from 16 matches, though, which is an indication of the size of their task on Saturday afternoon.
Union Berlin Bundesliga form: DLDWWL
Fortuna Dusseldorf Bundesliga form: WLDLDD
Team News
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Union Berlin will be without the services of their leading goalscorer Sebastian Andersson, with the Swede, who has netted 12 goals this season, unavailable due to a one-game suspension.
Anthony Ujah is expected to get the nod through the middle, but the hosts do have other absentees to contend with as Moritz Nicolas, Sebastian Polter, Christopher Lenz and Julian Ryerson are also absent.
Ken Reichel is expected to continue at the back in the absence of Lenz and Ryerson, while Grischa Promel is likely to keep his spot in the middle of the park.
As for Dusseldorf, Tim Wiesner, Aymen Barkok and Oliver Fink remain on the sidelines through injury, while on-loan Manchester United goalkeeper Zack Steffen is likely to miss out once again.
Rouwen Hennings has enjoyed an excellent campaign for the club, scoring 15 times in 31 appearances, and the 32-year-old should again be joined by Kenan Karaman in the final third of the field.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Trimmel, Friedrich, Schlotterbeck, Reichel; Gentner, Promel, Andrich; Ingvartsen, Bulter; Ujah
Fortuna Dusseldorf possible starting lineup:
Kastenmeier; Ayhan, Hoffmann, Suttner; Zimmermann, Stoger, Bodzek, Berisha, Thommy; Karaman, Hennings
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Fortuna Dusseldorf
The pressure is off Union Berlin, but the same cannot be said for Dusseldorf as they look to avoid the possibility of dropping into an automatic relegation spot. We are struggling to separate the two teams, though, and have therefore backed a low-scoring draw in Berlin.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
