Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 33.57% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Progreso win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.