Though they experienced different fortunes last time out, both Hellas Verona and mid-table rivals Udinese have picked up 10 points from their six most recent Serie A matches before they meet on Sunday.
Ahead of the clubs' encounter at Stadio Bentegodi, the pair have hopes of a top-half finish, with ninth-placed Hellas currently leading the Bianconeri by six points in the standings.
Match preview
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Having ended January with back-to-back wins against Emilian opposition, Verona returned from the international break with a testing trip to Turin, where they were beaten by a new-look Juventus side.
Recent Juve signings Dusan Vlahovic and Denis Zakaria scored the goals which consigned the Scaligeri to a 2-0 defeat last week, but Igor Tudor's team remain safely inside the top half of the table and could conceivably contend for a European spot if they can kick on in the coming weeks.
However, after having won each of their first five home games under Tudor, Hellas have taken maximum points from just one of their last five league fixtures at the Bentegodi - alternating draws with losses prior to their victory last time out at home to Bologna.
Denied by the Old Lady for the full 90 minutes last Sunday, they have nonetheless scored freely during the Croatian coach's time at the club, but have also dropped 20 points from leading situations this season - more than any other side.
Indeed, while only two teams have scored more than Udinese's 11 goals during the last 15 minutes of play in Serie A, Verona have conceded the most times (15) during this crucial period in the current campaign.
Though holding on to an advantage may therefore be a different matter, the Gialloblu can expect to at least take the lead in this weekend's fixture, as they have lost only two of their 17 home meetings with Udinese.
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Even if they have failed to return from most of their recent trips to Veneto with anything more than a point, Udinese have lost just one of their last 10 Serie A matches versus Verona; keeping a clean sheet seven times in the process.
In keeping with that trend, the Zebrette have not conceded in either of their last two top-flight matches - a goalless draw at relegation-threatened Genoa and last Sunday's 2-0 win over Torino.
Heading into stoppage time looking set for another 0-0 result, Gabriele Cioffi's men summoned up a decisive double strike at the very end of the game, with Nahuel Molina opening the scoring before Ignacio Pussetto sealed all three points with a coolly-taken penalty at the death.
Still far from assured of Serie A safety - though they sit nine points clear of the drop zone - Udinese had endured a slow start to 2022, which was hampered by a significant COVID-19 outbreak at the club around the turn of the year.
As a result, they crashed out of the Coppa Italia at Lazio, and have failed to score in either of their last two away games, after netting 10 times in the previous four.
The last time the Bianconeri played three consecutive away games in Serie A without scoring came back in October 2019, so they will be determined to break that streak and secure just a third win on the road this term.
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Team News
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After both missed out last week in Turin, Verona coach Igor Tudor - formerly in charge at Udinese - could again be without forward Gianluca Caprari and captain Davide Faraoni on Sunday, so recent loan signing Mateusz Praszelik could fill in for the former in support of Giovanni Simeone up front.
Though he is enjoying one of his most productive seasons in Serie A, Simeone has scored only one goal in 11 previous meetings against Udinese in the top flight and has now failed to find the net at all since early December.
The Argentinian striker returns to the side following suspension - taking the place of his deputy Nikola Kalinic - and will lead the line in Tudor's favoured 3-4-2-1 formation.
Udinese, meanwhile, will have Gerard Deulofeu back in the fold at the Benetgodi, but Tolgay Arslan must serve a suspension so Walace is in line to replace the German midfielder.
Nehuen Perez is a contender to feature in the back three too, but Gabriele Cioffi could otherwise retain the team that beat Torino. His only known fitness concern is Roberto Pereyra, who is closing in on a comeback from his shoulder injury and may even be ready for a place on the bench.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Casale, Gunter, Ceccherini; Depaoli, Tameze, Veloso, Lazovic; Barak, Praszelik; Simeone
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Becao, Mari, Perez; Soppy, Jajalo, Walace, Makengo, Udogie; Deulofeu, Beto
We say: Hellas Verona 2-1 Udinese
Scoring at a rate of nearly two goals per game on home soil, and having won half of their games at the Bentegodi this season, Verona can post a third win from four and extend their league lead over Udinese.
While it could be a tightly-contested affair, the hosts have the edge due to possessing a more explosive attack - albeit one that has slowed a little in recent weeks.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 52.8%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Udinese had a probability of 23.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Udinese win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hellas Verona would win this match.
