Villarreal will be aiming to book their spot in the second round of the 2024-25 Copa del Rey when they take on tackle fifth-tier outfit Poblense in the first round of the competition on Tuesday night.
The Yellow Submarine will enter the match off the back of a 2-1 success over Real Valladolid, with the result moving them into third spot in the La Liga table, while Poblense beat Portmany 2-1 in the fifth tier on Saturday.
Match preview
Poblense will be the huge underdogs heading into Tuesday's first-round affair in the Copa del Rey, but they will enter the contest in strong form, triumphing in six of their last seven matches in all competitions.
Oscar Troya's side have beaten Manacor and Portmany in their last two matches, and they currently sit second in the fifth tier of Spanish football, level on points with leaders Penya Independent.
Poblense have only lost once in all competitions this season, which was a 3-2 defeat to Compostela in the middle of October, but the response to that setback was impressive, winning their last two.
It is a big ask for the hosts to triumph on Tuesday night, though, as they will be coming up against a Villarreal outfit that should be firmly in the picture for a top-four spot in the La Liga table come the end of the campaign.
![Villarreal manager Marcelino Garcia Toral during the pre-season friendly match at the City Ground, Nottingham on August 2, 2024 [on August 5, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/32/marcelino-garcia-toral.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Villarreal manager Marcelino Garcia Toral during the pre-season friendly match at the City Ground, Nottingham on August 2, 2024 [on August 5, 2024]")
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Villarreal boast a record of six wins, three draws and two defeats from their 11 La Liga matches this season, with a total of 21 points leaving them in third spot in the table, only three points behind second-placed Real Madrid.
The Yellow Submarine's two La Liga losses this season have come against Barcelona and Real Madrid, but they will fancy their chances of being 'the best of the rest' this term, with a top-four spot certainly achievable.
Marcelino's side will enter this match off the back of a 2-1 success over Real Valladolid, with Ayoze Perez netting the winner in the 84th minute of the contest on his return from a muscular problem.
Villarreal have been the entertainers in Spain's top flight this season, scoring 20 times in their 11 matches, but they have conceded 19 times, which is actually the joint-third worst defensive record in the division behind Celta Vigo (20) and Real Valladolid (23).
The Yellow Submarine have struggled to make an impression in the Copa del Rey of late, only reaching the quarter-finals twice in their last nine campaigns, and they were eliminated in the last-32 stage of the 2023-24 competition.
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Team News
© Imago
Aitor Pons has been in excellent form for Poblense this season, scoring eight times in seven appearances, and the 33-year-old is set to be in the home side's XI on Tuesday night.
Head coach Troya is expected to name a full-strength side for this Copa del Rey fixture, with Dani Rigo and Miki Capella also likely to be in the team, while Pep Vidal will be a notable inclusion at the back.
As for Villarreal, Eric Bailly, Denis Suarez, Gerard Moreno, Juan Foyth and Alfonso Pedraza will miss the match through injury, but Perez made his return from a muscular problem against Real Valladolid.
In theory, Perez will be ready to start this match, but it seems unlikely that he will feature from the first whistle on Tuesday, which could mean that there is another spot through the middle for Nicolas Pepe.
Head coach Marcelino will make changes from the side that started against Real Valladolid, though, with Yeremy Pino, Juan Bernat, Ramon Terrats, Willy Kambwala, Pau Navarro and Luiz Junior set to feature in the XI.
Poblense possible starting lineup:
Cruz; Cifre, Herrera, Riera, Vidal; Alarcon, Lopez, Capella, Rigo; Gonzalez, Pons
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Junior; Femenia, Kambwala, Navarro, Bernat; Terrats, Comesana, Gueye; Pepe, Barry, Pino
We say: Poblense 0-4 Villarreal
Villarreal have been full of goals this season and that should again be the case on Tuesday night. Yellow Submarine head coach Marcelino will rest a number of important players, but the La Liga side should have far too much quality for their opponents.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 71.91%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Poblense had a probability of 11.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.47%) and 0-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.89%), while for a Poblense win it was 2-1 (3.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
