Wales resume their World Cup 2022 qualifying campaign with a home match against Belarus at the Cardiff City Stadium on Wednesday evening.
The Dragons can move above the Czech Republic into second place in Group E with a victory, while Belarus are looking to climb off the bottom with three points.
Match preview
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With two rounds of qualifying games remaining, the picture still remains rather complicated from Wales's perspective.
They can still finish first and qualify automatically for Qatar 2022, but they must beat Belarus and Belgium, while hoping the latter also drop points against Estonia on Saturday.
More realistically, Wales are battling with the Czech Republic for a playoff spot. Rob Page's men are level on points with the second-place Czechs with this game in hand to play.
The Czech Republic host Estonia in their last game, whereas Wales are at home to the world's top-ranked side Belgium, so goal difference may well also come into the equation.
That would be a cruel way for Wales to miss out on the top two, with the Dragons currently two goals worse off than the Czech Republic in that regard.
It should also be mentioned that Page's side may yet have the safety net of a playoff by virtue of winning their UEFA Nations League group, which only further complicates matters.
Regardless of all that, three points on Saturday will be the target for Wales to ensure their fate remains in their own hands.
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Wales have won five of their six matches against Belarus, including a 3-2 victory in September with Gareth Bale scoring a hat-trick in Kazan.
That came during an ongoing five-match unbeaten run for the Dragons since being eliminated from Euro 2020 by Denmark in June.
Belarus did give Wales a run for their money two months ago, but they have ultimately lost six qualifiers in a row since beating Estonia in their opening game.
The White Wings have conceded 17 goals in those six defeats and have scored just twice.
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Team News
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Bale has not played a single minute of action for Real Madrid since sustaining an injury during Wales's draw with Estonia on September 8.
The Dragons' all-time top scorer is one cap shy of 100, and that may well come as a substitute on Saturday, with Page unlikely to take any risks on his fitness.
Kieffer Moore is suspended for this contest in a big blow for the hosts, so it may well be that Daniel James and Harry Wilson - far from strikers in their own right - lead the line.
As for Belarus, Dinamo Minsk midfielder Artem Bykov is serving an automatic one-match ban, opening the door for Evgeni Yablonski to slot into the side.
Vitali Lisakovich has been directly involved in four of Belarus's six goals in this qualifying campaign and is expected to be joined in attack by Andrey Solovey.
Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Mepham, Ampadu, Rodon; Roberts, Ramsey, Morrell, Allen, Davies; James, Wilson
Belarus possible starting lineup:
Pavlyuchenko; Shetsov, Naumov, Yudenkov; Begunov, Antilevski, Klimovich, Yablonski, Zolotov; Lisakovich, Solovey
We say: Wales 2-0 Belarus
Wales have been slightly inconsistent this calendar year, but they enter this game five without defeat since the Euros and with their top-two hopes still in their hands.
Belarus have lost seven games in a row overall, meanwhile, and this contest in the Welsh capital will surely end only one way.
Top tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 60.05%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Belarus had a probability of 15.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.25%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Belarus win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
