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World Cup
Colombia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez
Venezuela national football team

Colombia
1 - 0
Venezuela

Borre (46')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Gonzalez (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Colombia and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions
Last Game: Germany 0-2 Colombia
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Brazil4810
2Peru4-27
3Colombia4-14
4Ecuador4-13
5Venezuela4-42

Venezuela

All competitions
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Guatemala
Sunday, June 18 at 9.30pm in International Friendlies
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Brazil4810
2Peru4-27
3Colombia4-14
4Ecuador4-13
5Venezuela4-42

We said: Colombia 2-0 Venezuela

 Both managers are still unbeaten since taking over within the last 12 months, and despite Venezuela's struggles in qualifying in recent years, we expect to see a competitive match on Thursday. However, Colombia clearly possess greater individual quality, with Diaz in particular capable of making the difference after scoring twice in four Premier League starts for Liverpool already this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 61.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.18%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.96%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Colombia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Colombia.

Result
ColombiaDrawVenezuela
61.9% (0.331 0.33) 24.44% (-0.061 -0.06) 13.65% (-0.27 -0.27)
Both teams to score 36.17% (-0.423 -0.42)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.01% (-0.214 -0.21)61.99% (0.215 0.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.27% (-0.159 -0.16)81.73% (0.158 0.16)
Colombia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.98% (0.042999999999992 0.04)20.01% (-0.044 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.79% (0.070999999999998 0.07)52.21% (-0.069999999999993 -0.07)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.23% (-0.553 -0.55)54.77% (0.553 0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.25% (-0.336 -0.34)87.75% (0.336 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Colombia 61.89%
    Venezuela 13.65%
    Draw 24.44%
ColombiaDrawVenezuela
1-0 @ 17.63% (0.16 0.16)
2-0 @ 14.18% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 8.54% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-0 @ 7.61% (0.091 0.09)
3-1 @ 4.58% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.06% (0.04 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.84% (-0.006 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.38% (-0.03 -0.03)
5-0 @ 0.98% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 61.89%
0-0 @ 10.96% (0.090000000000002 0.09)
1-1 @ 10.61% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-2 @ 2.57% (-0.059 -0.06)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 24.44%
0-1 @ 6.6% (-0.058 -0.06)
1-2 @ 3.2% (-0.078 -0.08)
0-2 @ 1.99% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 13.65%

How you voted: Colombia vs Venezuela

Colombia
74.6%
Draw
11.9%
Venezuela
13.6%
59
Head to Head
Mar 30, 2022 12.30am
Group Stage
Venezuela
0-1
Colombia
Rodriguez (45+4' pen.)
> Preview
Jun 17, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
Colombia
0-0
Venezuela
Cuadrado (77'), Uribe (82')
Diaz (90+4')
Aristeguieta (51'), La Mantia (55'), Herrera (77'), Andres Martinez (81'), Cumana (86')
> Preview
Oct 10, 2020 12.30am
Group Stage
Colombia
3-0
Venezuela
Herrera (4'), Angel (67'), Rosales (71')
Sep 11, 2019 1am
International Friendlies
Colombia
0-0
Venezuela
Lerma (54'), Moreno (69'), Muriel (90')
Angel (12'), Mago (21'), Soteldo (43')
Sep 8, 2018 1am
International Friendlies
Colombia
2-1
Venezuela
Falcao (55'), Chara (90')
Machis (4')
rhs 2.0
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