Uruguay have never lost a home game against Chile in their international history and will fancy their chances of keeping up that record with a win here, despite some key injuries.
Form has picked up for Chile in 2023 with an unbeaten start to the year, but they are up against it away from home here in a country where they have never won.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 62.82%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Chile had a probability of 13.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
-0.29) 
0.22) 
Germany
Switzerland
Hungary
Scotland
Spain
Italy
Croatia
Albania
England
Denmark
Slovenia
Serbia
Austria
France
Netherlands
Poland
Romania
Belgium
Slovakia
Ukraine
Portugal
Turkey
Georgia
Czech Republic
