There was very little separating the two nations at the World Cup, with South Korea finishing higher in the group by goals scored alone, and so we expect a closely-contested match. Both teams drew in their most recent outing, and given that they are very evenly-matched, a similar result is likely on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Korea win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a South Korea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
South Korea	Draw	Uruguay
43.04% ( 0.44)	27.49% ( -0.07)	29.47% ( -0.36)

Both teams to score 47.73% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.4% (

0.13)

57.6% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.63% (

0.1)

78.37% (

-0.1)

South Korea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.49% (

0.29)

26.51% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.29% (

0.38)

61.7% (

-0.38)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.95% (

-0.2)

35.05% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.2% (

-0.21)

71.8% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

South Korea 43.03%

Uruguay 29.47%

Draw 27.48%

South Korea	Draw	Uruguay
1-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.8% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.05% Total : 43.03%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.29% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.5% ( 0) Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.48%	0-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.12% Total : 29.47%