Club Brugge play host to Zenit St Petersburg on Wednesday evening knowing that victory is required if they wish to qualify for the Champions League last 16.
However, after beating Zenit in Russia on matchday one, Brugge head into this contest aware that a point will be enough to secure Europa League football after Christmas.
Match preview
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When they were drawn alongside Borussia Dortmund and Lazio in Group F, Brugge and Zenit would have been satisfied after missing out on some of the bigger clubs on the continent.
Nevertheless, the two outsiders have been outclassed during the opening four matchdays with their only win coming when they faced each other on October 20.
Since then, just one point has been recorded from their next three fixtures, leaving Brugge four points behind second place and Zenit already out of contention.
Philippe Clement will acknowledge that Europa League qualification is more realistic for his side, especially when they have been hit and miss in Belgium's top flight.
While they are currently on a four-match unbeaten streak on the domestic scene, they only sit in third place after collecting nine points from six matches.
Zenit's struggles since the beginning of the season have led to question marks being raised over the long-term future of Sergei Semak.
However, despite witnessing his side win just two of their last nine outings in all competitions, Zenit sit in first position in the Russian Premier League.
That has brought Semak a bit of breathing space, but the 44-year-old knows that finishing bottom of this group with a game to spare could leave him on the brink of the sack.
Zenit have recorded draws away at Akhmat Grozny and Arsenal Tula in their last two league matches, extending their unbeaten record on their travels in Russia to six games.
Club Brugge Champions League form: WDLL
Club Brugge form (all competitions): DLWWLD
Zenit St Petersburg Champions League form: LLDL
Zenit St Petersburg form (all competitions): WDWDLD
Team News
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With maximum points required from this game, Semak may consider using Malcom, Sardar Azmoun and Artem Dyzuba in a front three.
However, the latter is an injury doubt, and that could lead to the Russia international dropping down to the substitutes' bench.
Dejan Lovren is serving a suspension for three yellow cards, meaning that youngster Danila Prokhin may be given an opportunity in defence.
Clement may consider making a couple of changes to the team which could only record a goalless draw at Excel Mouscron at the weekend.
Emmanuel Dennis is in line for a recall in attack, while Krepin Diatta may return on the opposite flank.
Club Brugge possible starting lineup:
Mignolet; Mata, Kossounou, Deli, Ketelaere; Balanta, Vormer, Vanaken; Dennis, Krmencik, Diatta
Zenit St Petersburg possible starting lineup:
Kerzhakov; Prokhin, Rakitskiy, Zhirkov; Kuzyaev, Barrios, Santos, Mostovoy; Malcom, Dzyuba, Azmoun
We say: Club Brugge 1-2 Zenit St Petersburg
Despite their current position in the group, it remains to be seen how Brugge will react to succumbing so tamely in their double-header with Dortmund. With nothing to lose, we feel that Zenit could rise to the occasion here, recording a result which would give them an edge heading into matchday six.
Top betting tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Brugge win with a probability of 46.47%. A win for Zenit St Petersburg had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Brugge win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Brugge would win this match.
