Back-to-back cup wins have given Fluminense a boost ahead of their trip to America Mineiro on Sunday, as they now look to improve their fortunes in the Campeonato Brasileiro.
Sitting in mid-table heading into the game, Flu are seeking to replicate last season's top-five finish, while their hosts have struggled since promotion from Serie B.
Match preview
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After a successful week of knockout football, Fluminense return to the bread and butter of the league on Sunday, with maximum points against lowly America Mineiro an expectation if they are to pick up the pace and catch other sides that have started less sluggishly.
Having lost three consecutive matches before last Saturday's second leg of their Copa do Brasil last-16 tie with Serie C's Criciuma, there was a lot on the line for Roger Machado's team when they filed out on to the turf at Maracana.
Though he was later sent off for a second bookable offence, Manoel's early goal set Fluminense in motion, and they ran out 3-0 winners to turn the tie around - progressing 4-2 on aggregate.
Clearly, that stood them in good stead, as the Rio giants then finished off their Copa Libertadores opponents Cerro Porteno at the equivalent stage of South America's top club competition in midweek.
Again, a goal in the opening half-hour proved decisive, as Fred's 24th-minute penalty was ultimately enough to secure a 3-0 victory across a two-legged tie with the Paraguayan club, despite conceding most of the possession and having to soak up some pressure.
With recent league defeats to Gremio and Palmeiras therefore exorcised by the prospect of two cup quarter-finals to come, Flu will journey to Belo Horizonte aiming to repeat the result the last time they met America in the top flight, when they emerged 1-0 winners back in 2017.
Their hosts, meanwhile, will be seeking to end a five-game winless run that has seen them drop into the bottom three - making a quick return to the second tier a very real possibility unless their fortunes turn around.
After finishing Serie B runners-up last season, America have had a tough time back in the elite, winning just two of their 14 league games since promotion in January.
In fact, after a seven-match winless streak at the start of the season, those victories came in consecutive games - against Bahia and Santos respectively - bringing hope that a corner had been turned.
However, a chastening 4-0 defeat to Fortaleza was followed by two further losses and a pair of draws - the latest coming versus Atletico Goianiense last Monday - so Vagner Mancini's side now find themselves two points adrift of safety. Not only that, but goals have dried up too - with just two in those five fruitless outings.
Nonetheless, after Sunday's testing encounter at Estadio Raimundo Sampaio, they will then tackle rock-bottom Chapecoense, when the chance to pick up some much-needed points - and boost a meagre goals tally - will really need to be taken.
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Team News
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Roger Machado's visitors were in Copa Libertadores action on Tuesday - and will be again next week - but the former Gremio boss should field a settled XI this weekend.
Fluminense will, though, remain without Hudson due to an ACL injury which could keep him out until the end of the year, while on-loan striker Caio Paulista misses out again with a thigh problem.
Furthermore, Nino remains unavailable, as he celebrates winning gold for Brazil at the Olympic Games, while Paraguayan forward Raul Bobadilla - having only just returned from a calf strain - tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week, so must self-isolate.
The Flu attack, therefore, is likely to be formed by Luiz Henrique, Gabriel Teixeira and former Brazil striker Fred; supported by 40-year-old Nene - once a star at Paris Saint-Germain.
America, meanwhile, have several absences to contend with, as Eduardo (foot), Bruno Nazario (thigh), Marlon (knee) and Yan Sasse (muscular) are all set to miss out through injury.
Ademir Santos scored last time out - one of only two goals in nearly 500 minutes of football for Sunday's home side - so is set to retain his place, supporting Fabricio up front.
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Eduardo, Ramon, Silva; Patric, Juninho, Valoura, Ruschel; Azevedo, Santos; Fabricio
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Marcos; Xavier, Claro, Manoel, Egidio; Yago, Martinelli; Henrique, Nene, Teixeira; Fred
We say: America Mineiro 1-3 Fluminense
Momentum is in the visitors favour, while confidence is at a low ebb in this toiling America side - so the outcome seems inevitable.
Flu will pick up maximum points, having re-found their shooting boots in recent games, and can look forward to their forthcoming Libertadores quarter-final against Ecuador's Barcelona with renewed belief.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 36.59%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 32.57% and a draw had a probability of 30.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.3%) and 2-1 (7.01%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (13.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for America Mineiro in this match.
