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Champions League permutations: Possible outcomes for Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City on matchday seven

Sports Mole looks at the possible permutations of this week's Champions League action, including possible fates for Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.

Turns out, even the Champions League needs Christmas and New Year off, but after one month of no top-level continental action, Europe's premier tournament will grace TV screens once again this week.

The jury may still be out on the revamped 36-team league phase, especially as the demands on already-exhausted players grow ever more, but the first six matchdays have thrown up their fair share of surprises as sides hunt down a coveted top-24 or top-eight finish.

A few fates have already been sealed ahead of the final two matchdays, as the three pointless sides - RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys - have all been eliminated, but all other 33 teams could either break into or drop out of a last-16 or playoff position.

Attempting to crunch all the numbers and permutations for the 36-team league phase would be a fool's errand even for the most wily statistician, but at Sports Mole, we have done our best to look at the possible scenarios for the biggest teams ahead of the seventh matchday.


Who could qualify for the last 16?

Liverpool manager Arne Slot pictured on January 5, 2025© Imago

With an unrivalled 18 points from a possible 18 on their record, Liverpool are virtually assured of their spot in the last 16, as they hold a six-point buffer over Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan, the four sides hovering just below the top-eight line.

As a result, Arne Slot's men need only draw with Lille on Tuesday to ensure a spot in the last 16 without the need for a knockout-round playoff, but even if they lose, they will progress if all of Bayern, Dortmund, Atletico and Milan fail to win.

That scenario is possible given that all the teams ranked from ninth to 16th avoid playing each other on the penultimate matchday, meaning that each of the eight members of that troupe could either win or lose, as could nearly all the teams in the top eight.

Liverpool (1) vs. Lille (8) is the only encounter on matchday seven to be played between two sides inside the last-16 places, so Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa and Brest could all achieve victory.

Barcelona have 15 points to their name after six matchdays and will drop into the playoffs (unseeded) at the very worst, but victory for them against Benfica coupled with Dortmund, Bayern, Atletico and Milan all failing to win would send them through.

Arsenal, Villa, Inter, Leverkusen and Brest are all on 13 points at present, but there are two games being played between teams ranked 9-24 on matchday seven - Feyenoord vs. Bayern Munich and Club Brugge vs. Juventus - all of whom fall in the 10-12 point column.

At least one of Bayern (12 points) or Feyenoord (10 points) will still be within touching distance of Arsenal, Villa, Inter, Leverkusen and Brest no matter what happens this week, so their fates will not be confirmed until the final matchday.

Possible outcomes on matchday seven:

  • Liverpool through to last 16 if they beat or draw with Lille, or if they lose and Bayern, Dortmund, Atletico and Milan fail to win
  • Barcelona through to last 16 if they beat Benfica and Dortmund, Bayern, Atletico and Milan all fail to win



    Can Man City, Real Madrid, Celtic seal a playoff place?

    Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola during his side's Premier League match against Brentford, on January 14, 2025© Imago

    Lower down the table, we find the ailing last two winners of the Champions League - Manchester City and defending champions Real Madrid - both of whom are on course for an unseeded playoff place as things stand.

    The two sides are still capable of breaking into the top eight, but they would require every possible star to align for them if that is to materialise, and the main mission for Pep Guardiola and Carlo Ancelotti this week should simply be securing a playoff position.

    Real Madrid currently have nine points, while Man City boast eight, and if they win their respective matches against Red Bull Salzburg and Paris Saint-Germain, a top-24 finish will be a guarantee if a shock result goes their way.

    PSG themselves are 25th with seven points, meaning that Man City would be guaranteed to finish above the French champions with a win, and the only other team on seven points is 26th-placed Stuttgart.

    The German side face already-eliminated Slovan Bratislava on matchday seven and will be expected to prevail, but if they are somehow beaten, Man City will be through to the knockout playoffs at the worst with a victory.

    Celtic are in the exact same boat as Real Madrid, whom they share a nine-point total with, and the Bhoys should also be confident of avoiding elimination given that their next game is at home to basement side Young Boys.

    Possible outcomes:

  • Real Madrid guaranteed a playoff spot if they beat Salzburg and PSG and Stuttgart fail to win
  • Celtic guaranteed a playoff spot if they beat Young Boys and PSG and Stuttgart fail to win
  • Man City guaranteed a playoff spot if they beat PSG and Stuttgart lose



    Who could be eliminated?

    Nuno Mendes and Randal Kolo Muani of Paris Saint-Germain on May 1, 2025© Imago

    Aside from Stuttgart and Slovan Bratislava, all other teams currently outside of the playoff spots will avoid each other on matchday seven, where Bologna will surely be the next to fall.

    The Italian outfit have just two points on the board - meaning that Man City, PSV Eindhoven and Dinamo Zagreb are the only teams that they can catch - but they will need to win their final two games and hope that those three teams lose their last two.

    Given that Bologna face Dortmund next up, their journey will surely end in midweek, while almost every team above them also needs to win to keep their faint hopes of a knockout place alive.

    Salzburg, Red Star Belgrade, Girona, Sturm Graz, Sparta Prague and Shakhtar Donetsk will all be out if they lose on matchday seven, but if Shakhtar and Sparta - who are both on four points - draw, they could still be in with a slight chance of overtaking Man City, Dinamo Zagreb and PSV on goal difference on the final matchday if those three teams are defeated this week.

    There is the possibility of all current bottom 12 clubs being eliminated before the last gameweek, as if Man City, Dinamo Zagreb and PSV all win while PSG and Stuttgart lose, the latter two teams would find themselves four points behind the former three with just one game remaining.

    Luis Enrique's team should avoid that fate given that Zagreb travel to Arsenal, but PSG's current position is embarrassing enough for a side who appear incapable of shaking the Champions League curse.

    Possible outcomes:

  • PSG eliminated if they lose to Man City and PSV and Dinamo Zagreb both win

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