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Australia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 7, 2021 at 7.30pm UK
 
Oman national football team

Australia
3 - 1
Oman

Mabil (9'), Boyle (49'), Duke (89')
Grant (31'), Irvine (78')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Al Alawi (28')
Al Alawi (39'), Al-Busaidi (58')

Preview: Australia vs. Oman - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Australia and Oman, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Australia will look to continue their perfect record in the World Cup 2022 Qualifiers on Thursday, when they meet Oman at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha.

The team from down under currently sit top of Group B, whilst their opponents sit third, having pulled off a shock victory in their first game.


Match preview

Marco Tilio of Australia celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on July 22, 2021© Reuters

As is often the case in the early stages of qualification in the AFC, Australia destroyed the competition in the second qualifying round, winning all eight games and conceding just two goals.

The Socceroos have seemingly carried that form into the next stage too, winning their first two matches in the third round without conceding a goal.

Two goals in two minutes from Awer Mabil and Martin Boyle set Graham Arnold's side on their way in the first Group B match, with Mitchell Duke adding a third in the 70th minute to secure a comfortable 3-0 win over China in Doha.

A trip to Hanoi to take on Vietnam in their next game proved tougher, but Rhyan Grant's first international goal edged a narrow 1-0 victory which sees them topping the group on goal difference from Saudi Arabia.

The pandemic has made life particularly difficult for Australia, as ongoing restrictions in their home country mean the Socceroos cannot play international matches on their own turf - a significant blow to a side that has lost just one home World Cup qualifying fixture since the early 1980s - hence another trip to Doha for what would have been a home game.

Nonetheless, they remain one of the favourites to progress to the World Cup finals for a fifth consecutive time, and have started this round in the perfect manner.

Australia coach Graham Arnold on July 22, 2021© Reuters

Oman, on the other hand, were expected to have been satisfied just to reach this stage of qualification for the third time.

The Reds progressed by finishing as runner-up to Asian champions Qatar in Group E, winning an impressive six of their eight games, despite a shaky start where they fell behind to India in their opening match.

They appear to be dreaming big this campaign, however, and secured a shock 1-0 victory in their first game of the third qualifying round, beating Japan away from home thanks to an 88th-minute winner from Issam Al Sabhi.

Another tough match against Saudi Arabia five days later saw them end up on the other end of the same scoreline, despite a strong performance, but they can be reasonably pleased to have taken three points from those two fixtures and with the effect that new manager Branko Ivankovic appears to have had on the team.

They now face an even bigger challenge, as they try to come away with something against a team on a run of 10 consecutive wins, but can perhaps draw on the momentum of an emphatic 7-2 friendly win over Nepal last week.

Australia World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Oman World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Oman form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Aaron Mooy in action for Australia on June 19, 2017© Reuters

Australia have called up Sunderland's Bailey Wright to replace Milos Degenek for the upcoming qualifiers after the defender tested positive for COVID-19.

Fellow defender Brad Smith also missed out on the squad due to a positive COVID-19 test, but right-back Fran Karacic returns after missing the last two matches through injury.

Arnold will be pleased that there are no current travel restrictions to prevent key man Aaron Mooy - of Shanghai Port FC - from playing, and the midfielder is certain to dictate things in the middle of the park.

The unenviable task of replacing Oman's greatest footballer of all time has fallen on Faiz Al-Rushaidi - having taken over as number one following the retirement of the iconic Ali Al-Habsi - but the goalkeeper has fared well, conceding just once in the first two games.

The match-winner from the Japan game, Al Sabhi, is once again in the squad and will surely be considered after the team failed to score against Saudi Arabia when he was left on the bench.

Australia possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Behich, Souttar, Sainsbury, Grant; Irvine, Mooy, Rogic; Boyle, Duke, Mabil

Oman possible starting lineup:
Al-Rushaidi; Al Harthi, Al Khamisi, Al Habsi, Al-Busaidi; Al Aghbari, Al-Saadi, Fawaz; Al-Yahyaei; Al-Alawi, Al-Hajri


SM words green background

We say: Australia 2-0 Oman

Oman have showed real progress of late - and appear to have developed a stubborn defence under Ivankovic - but the class in the Socceroos' ranks will surely be too much for them. We expect the scoreline to remain respectable, though.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
James Mackenzie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Oman had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.61%) and 2-0 (5.97%). The likeliest Oman win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Australia vs Oman

Australia
88.4%
Draw
8.0%
Oman
3.6%
138
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