Making their first appearance in the final phase in over 20 years, Canada will hope to kick off this round of World Cup 2022 qualifying on a winning note when they host Honduras on Thursday from BMO Field in Toronto.
The Canadians have not qualified for the World Cup since 1986, while Honduras missed out on the 2018 finals, losing in a play-off to Australia.
Match preview
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This is the closest Canada have come to making a World Cup in a long time, advancing to the final stage of qualifying for the first time since their 1998 campaign when they finished dead last.
Since taking over from Octavio Zambrano in early 2018, John Herdman has turned this side into one of the more formidable teams in the region, just like he did while in charge of the Canadian women's team, leading them to two Olympic bronze medals.
Under his leadership, the men have won 21 of their last 27 games, making it to the semi-finals of the Gold Cup in July, dropping a heartbreaker, 2-1 to Mexico.
The current players on the team are as talented a group as this program has seen since making their only finals appearance over 35 years ago.
Despite missing several key offensive weapons at the Gold Cup, the Canadians showed they have quality players up and down their roster who deserve a lot of respect.
They had no trouble making it to this qualifying stage, winning all four of their opening-round matches in Group B, outscoring their opponents 27-1 and then ousting Haiti 4-0 on aggregate in their second-round tie.
While they exercised some demons with two wins against Haiti in the previous qualifying phase, they will hope to perform another exorcism on Thursday against Honduras, who finished a point ahead of Canada in the fourth round of qualifying for the 2018 finals and also eliminated them in the 2014 qualifying round, with an emphatic 8-1 hammering.
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After missing their first World Cup finals since the 2006 campaign, Honduras will be hoping to return to the big event once again.
Los Catrachos saw their dreams of a third successive finals trip dashed by Mile Jedinak, who scored a second-half hat-trick for the Socceroos in the second leg of that play-off after the opening match ended in a 0-0 draw.
Getting a free pass into the final phase of qualifying due to their seeding in CONCACAF could be seen as a stroke of good fortune for Fabian Coito and his side, who have had a mixture of good and poor performances this year.
They began the Gold Cup last month with victories against Grenada and Panama but looked worn out in the latter stages of the competition, getting shut down 2-0 by Qatar before failing to generate a lot of offence in a 3-0 defeat in the quarter-finals to Mexico.
Honduras have only lost once to Canada since 2012, and they will hope to start this phase of qualifying on a better note than they did four years ago when they dropped two of their first three games, including a 6-0 defeat to the United States.
Before their Gold Cup campaign, the Hondurans had put together a decent run, narrowly losing 1-0 to the US in the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Nations League before capturing a bronze medal with a 5-4 shootout victory over Costa Rica, and then holding Mexico scoreless in a friendly.
This is an experienced side, who have gotten away from their ordinarily reliable defensive game, conceding seven goals in their last three fixtures while allowing plenty of quality scoring chances.
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Team News
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Alphonso Davies missed the Gold Cup for Canada because of an ankle injury, but he, along with Lille striker Jonathan David were named to the roster, along with veteran goalkeeper Milan Borjan, who is expected to take the place of Maxime Crepeau in goal despite the Vancouver Whitecaps keeper leading the Canucks to the semi-finals of the Gold Cup.
Stephen Eustaquio and Cyle Larin led the way for the Canadians at that tournament with three goals each, while Larin's teammate at Besiktas, midfielder Atiba Hutchinson, is back and needs only five more caps to surpass Julian de Guzman for the most all-time for Canada.
Tajon Buchanan made quite an impression at the Gold Cup, scoring the equaliser against Mexico in the semi-finals as he prepares to transfer to Club Brugge in Belgium later this year.
CF Montreal striker Romell Quioto led Honduras with three goals in their 2018 qualifying tournament, while captain Maynor Figueroa has the most all-time appearances with 172 and Boniek Garcia is only three back of Noel Valladares for third in that category.
Reggina striker Rigoberto Rivas will hope to tally his first international goal, having made 10 appearances for the senior side, while goalkeeper Luis Lopez was on the bench for all three of their World Cup matches in 2014 but has started in the last seven matches for his country.
Los Angeles Galaxy defender Danilo Acosta is one of three players chosen for this match who have yet to earn an international cap, along with Jose Garcia and Marlon Licona.
Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Miller, Henry, Johnston; Laryea, Hutchinson, Eustaquio, Buchanan; Davies, David, Hoilett
Honduras possible starting lineup:
L. Lopez; Leveron, Figueroa, Najar, Acosta; D. Rodriguez, Acosta, Flores, Pineda; Quioto, Lozano
We say: Canada 2-1 Honduras
Canada were unlucky to lose out in the semi-finals of the Gold Cup, and that was without their best attacking options, so with David and Davies in the fold, the sky is the limit right now for this young and dynamic Canadian side.
Time seems to have gotten the better of this Honduran team, who have a lot of experience but do not have the offensive capabilities to score eight goals as they did against Canada back in 2012.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 55.04%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Honduras had a probability of 20.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Honduras win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
