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Champions League
Ajax
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 4, 2022 at 8pm UK
Johan Cruijff Arena
Napoli logo

Ajax
1 - 6
Napoli

Kudus (9')
Maduro (30'), Tadic (38'), Kudus (90+2')
Tadic (73')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Raspadori (18', 47'), Di Lorenzo (33'), Zielinski (45'), Kvaratskhelia (63'), Simeone (81')
Raspadori (21'), Spalletti (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Ajax and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Ajax 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Saturday, October 1 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Napoli

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Napoli 3-1 Torino
Saturday, October 1 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Ajax 1-2 Napoli

 In what will be a tightly contested game in Amsterdam, we expect both sides to create plenty of chances and to play an open game that could leave them susceptible to counter-attacks. Nevertheless, Napoli will manage to find a way through the Ajax rearguard due to their sheer quality in the final third. Their offensive arsenal will prove to be too much for Ajax to handle in the end, handing them a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 35.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (5.55%). The likeliest Napoli win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
AjaxDrawNapoli
40.8% (0.036999999999999 0.04) 23.3% (0.016999999999999 0.02) 35.9% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Both teams to score 63.98% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.46% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)37.54% (0.101 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.23% (-0.105 -0.11)59.76% (0.108 0.11)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.14% (-0.024999999999991 -0.02)18.85% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.69% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)50.31% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.84% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)21.15% (0.071999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.99% (-0.111 -0.11)54.01% (0.115 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Ajax 40.8%
    Napoli 35.9%
    Draw 23.29%
AjaxDrawNapoli
2-1 @ 8.62% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
1-0 @ 6.65% (0.027 0.03)
2-0 @ 5.55% (0.017 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.8% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 3.73% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.09% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 2% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-2 @ 1.55% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 1.29% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 40.8%
1-1 @ 10.33% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.7% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.99% (0.019 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.93% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 23.29%
1-2 @ 8.03% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-1 @ 6.2% (0.017 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.81% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 4.16% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.47% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.49% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.61% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.35% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 0.97% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 35.9%

How you voted: Ajax vs Napoli

Ajax
27.6%
Draw
16.1%
Napoli
56.3%
503
rhs 2.0
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