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Champions League
Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 11, 2023 at 4pm UK
Urartu Stadium

Urartu
0 - 1
Zrinjski Mostar


Margaryan (33'), Tsymbalyuk (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Senic (89')
Bilbija (50'), Barisic (52'), Stanic (66'), Zlomislic (78'), Senic (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Urartu and Zrinjski Mostar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Urartu

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Last Game: Urartu 0-1 Maribor
Thursday, July 15 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Zrinjski Mostar

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Slovan Bratislava 2-1 Zrinjski Mostar (6-5 pen.)
Thursday, August 25 at 7.30pm in Europa Conference League
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We said: Urartu 0-1 Zrinjski Mostar

 Zrinjski Mostar have more experience in the competition, pushing Sheriff Tiraspol all the way last season, while they were also much more dominant than their opponents in their domestic league. As such, we expect the Bosnian side to emerge as narrow victors, taking a slender advantage into the second leg in a week's time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zrinjski Mostar win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Urartu had a probability of 24.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zrinjski Mostar win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.9%) and 1-2 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Urartu win it was 1-0 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Zrinjski Mostar in this match.

Result
UrartuDrawZrinjski Mostar
24.08% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02) 27.61% (0.004999999999999 0) 48.3% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Both teams to score 43.67% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.1% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)60.89% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.08% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02)80.91% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Urartu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.52% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)41.47% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.02% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)77.97% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Zrinjski Mostar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.62% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)25.37% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.82% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)60.17% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Urartu 24.08%
    Zrinjski Mostar 48.3%
    Draw 27.61%
UrartuDrawZrinjski Mostar
1-0 @ 9.26% (0.0010000000000012 0)
2-1 @ 5.59% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-0 @ 4.08% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 1.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 1.2% (-0.002 -0)
3-2 @ 1.13% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.19%
Total : 24.08%
1-1 @ 12.7%
0-0 @ 10.52% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.83% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 27.61%
0-1 @ 14.43% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.9% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.71% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 4.52% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 3.98% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 1.75% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 1.55%
1-4 @ 1.37% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 48.3%

How you voted: Urartu vs Zrinjski Mostar

Urartu
29.6%
Draw
18.3%
Zrinjski Mostar
52.1%
71
rhs 2.0
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