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Championship | Gameweek 19
Dec 7, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Elland Road
Derby logo

Leeds
2 - 0
Derby

Rodon (39'), Wober (44')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Jackson (15')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Leeds United and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Blackburn 1-0 Leeds
Saturday, November 30 at 1.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 1-2 Sheff Weds
Sunday, December 1 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Leeds United 3-0 Derby County

With Leeds welcoming a newly-promoted side to Elland Road, this weekend's clash has all the hallmarks of a comfortable victory for Farke's troops. Due to the absence of midfield enforcer Adams, Derby are in serious risk of being overrun in the engine room, so we can only envisage a troubling afternoon for the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 70.37%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 11.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Leeds United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Leeds United.

Result
Leeds UnitedDrawDerby County
70.37% (-0.376 -0.38) 18.46% (0.376 0.38) 11.17% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Both teams to score 45.42% (-1.255 -1.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.82% (-1.679 -1.68)45.18% (1.677 1.68)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.47% (-1.63 -1.63)67.52% (1.628 1.63)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.39% (-0.571 -0.57)11.61% (0.571 0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.4% (-1.241 -1.24)36.6% (1.241 1.24)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.39% (-1.081 -1.08)48.61% (1.079 1.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.32% (-0.79 -0.79)83.68% (0.788 0.79)
Score Analysis
    Leeds United 70.37%
    Derby County 11.17%
    Draw 18.46%
Leeds UnitedDrawDerby County
2-0 @ 13.08% (0.34 0.34)
1-0 @ 12.15% (0.59 0.59)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.038 -0.04)
3-0 @ 9.39% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.78% (-0.187 -0.19)
4-0 @ 5.06% (-0.1 -0.1)
4-1 @ 3.65% (-0.188 -0.19)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.146 -0.15)
5-0 @ 2.18% (-0.095 -0.1)
5-1 @ 1.57% (-0.12 -0.12)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.11 -0.11)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 70.37%
1-1 @ 8.76% (0.164 0.16)
0-0 @ 5.64% (0.396 0.4)
2-2 @ 3.4% (-0.12 -0.12)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 18.46%
0-1 @ 4.07% (0.168 0.17)
1-2 @ 3.16% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-2 @ 1.47% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 11.17%

How you voted: Leeds vs Derby

Leeds United
77.2%
Draw
17.5%
Derby County
5.3%
57
Head to Head
Jul 19, 2020 2pm
Gameweek 45
Derby
1-3
Leeds
Sep 21, 2019 12.30pm
May 15, 2019 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Leeds
2-4
Derby
May 11, 2019 5.15pm
Semi-Finals
Derby
0-1
Leeds
Jan 11, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 27
Leeds
2-0
Derby
Roofe (20'), Harrison (47')
Roofe (54')

Wisdom (15'), Evans (45'), Holmes (45'), Waghorn (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds32209366194769
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd32216546232367
3Burnley32171323993064
4Sunderland321711449282162
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn32146123731648
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom321114741301147
7Bristol City32111294036445
8Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds32129114548-345
9Middlesbrough31128115042844
10Coventry CityCoventry32128124240244
11Queens Park RangersQPR331111113941-244
12Norwich CityNorwich321110115044643
13Watford32126144248-642
14Millwall311010113132-140
15Preston North EndPreston3191393438-440
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd32911123445-1138
17Swansea CitySwansea32107153343-1037
18Portsmouth3289153955-1633
19Stoke CityStoke31711132839-1132
20Cardiff CityCardiff31710143453-1931
21Hull City3178163142-1129
22Derby CountyDerby3378183346-1329
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth31610153464-3028
24Luton TownLuton3176183051-2127


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