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Championship | Gameweek 16
Nov 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Deepdale
Derby logo

Preston
1 - 1
Derby

Greenwood (23')
Greenwood (62'), McCann (87')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Yates (29')
Thompson (58'), Harness (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Preston North End and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Portsmouth 3-1 Preston
Saturday, November 9 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Plymouth
Saturday, November 9 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Preston North End 2-1 Derby County

Given a fortnight to reflect on their poor run of form, Preston should be raring to get back into second-tier action and put Derby to the sword at Deepdale. The Rams have struggled on the road so far in 2024-25, so we cannot envisage the newly-promoted side earning anything tangible for their efforts in Lancashire this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Preston North End had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Preston North End win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result
Preston North EndDrawDerby County
33.8% (0.308 0.31) 26.72% (0.13 0.13) 39.47% (-0.439 -0.44)
Both teams to score 51.53% (-0.342 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.53% (-0.467 -0.47)53.46% (0.467 0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.01% (-0.396 -0.4)74.99% (0.396 0.4)
Preston North End Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.12% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)29.88% (0.032 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.02% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)65.97% (0.038999999999987 0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.49% (-0.455 -0.45)26.5% (0.454 0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.3% (-0.608 -0.61)61.7% (0.609 0.61)
Score Analysis
    Preston North End 33.8%
    Derby County 39.47%
    Draw 26.72%
Preston North EndDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.57% (0.165 0.17)
2-1 @ 7.67% (0.028 0.03)
2-0 @ 5.78% (0.095 0.09)
3-1 @ 3.09% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.33% (0.036 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.05% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-1 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 33.8%
1-1 @ 12.7% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
0-0 @ 7.92% (0.144 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.09% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.72%
0-1 @ 10.51% (0.06 0.06)
1-2 @ 8.43% (-0.071000000000002 -0.07)
0-2 @ 6.98% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.73% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-3 @ 3.09% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.26% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-4 @ 1.03% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 39.47%

How you voted: Preston vs Derby

Preston North End
51.4%
Draw
24.3%
Derby County
24.3%
37
Head to Head
Apr 2, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 40
Derby
1-0
Preston
Morrison (80')
Davies (66'), Knight (84')
Bird (55')

Whiteman (61'), Johnson (87')
Lindsay (32')
Oct 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 12
Preston
0-0
Derby
Johnson (5'), Storey (62')
Apr 20, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 43
Preston
3-0
Derby
Whiteman (18'), Evans (73'), Ledson (87')

Byrne (86')
Dec 26, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 21
Derby
0-1
Preston

Waghorn (20')
Browne (90+5')
Fisher (43')
Sep 15, 2020 6.30pm
Second Round
Derby
1-2
Preston
Knight (51')
Buchanan (27'), Shinnie (65'), Evans (88')
te Wierik (55')
Barkhuizen (79'), Johnson (90+2' pen.)
Huntington (59'), Browne (73'), Fisher (75')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds32209366194769
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd32216546232367
3Burnley32171323993064
4Sunderland321711449282162
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn32146123731648
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom321114741301147
7Bristol City32111294036445
8Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds32129114548-345
9Middlesbrough31128115042844
10Coventry CityCoventry32128124240244
11Queens Park RangersQPR331111113941-244
12Norwich CityNorwich321110115044643
13Watford32126144248-642
14Millwall311010113132-140
15Preston North EndPreston3191393438-440
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd32911123445-1138
17Swansea CitySwansea32107153343-1037
18Portsmouth3289153955-1633
19Stoke CityStoke31711132839-1132
20Cardiff CityCardiff31710143453-1931
21Hull City3178163142-1129
22Derby CountyDerby3378183346-1329
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth31610153464-3028
24Luton TownLuton3176183051-2127


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