Hartlepool United will be aiming to make history when they visit Crystal Palace in the FA Cup fourth round on Saturday.
The League Two outfit have never reached round five, but have beaten higher-tier opposition in all three previous rounds this season.
Match preview
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After knocking out League One sides Wycombe Wanderers and Lincoln City, Hartlepool pulled off one of the shocks of the third round when they came from behind to win 2-1 against Blackpool of the Championship.
This is Pools' first appearance in round four in 13 years and they will be aiming to make the most of it against their Premier League opponents.
Graeme Lee's side are 16th in League Two with little chance of promotion or relegation, so their runs in this competition and in the EFL Trophy (which they are in the semi-finals of) are defining their season.
Indeed, Hartlepool have only won three of their last 10 matches in all competitions, with all of those victories coming in the cups.
However, the North-East club have only won once in five previous visits to Selhurst Park – in 1958 – and have picked up the fewest points away from home in League Two this season (six).
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Crystal Palace have reached the FA Cup final twice without ever winning the competition, but manager Patrick Vieira has lifted the trophy five times – only Ashley Cole has done so on more occasions.
Since losing the 2016 final to Manchester United, the Eagles – who are currently 13th in the Premier League – have only gone beyond the fourth round once.
They came from behind to win 2-1 away at Millwall in round three this year with goals from Michael Olise and Jean-Philippe Mateta, who has since made his loan move to South London permanent.
That stands as their only win in four games in 2022 so far, while they have lost their last two matches at Selhurst Park; Palace have not suffered three consecutive defeats on home turf since July 2020.
This is the first meeting between the two sides since the Eagles won 2-1 in a League Cup fixture in 2004, with current sporting director Dougie Freedman getting on the scoresheet that day.
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Team News
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Wilfried Zaha has returned from the Africa Cup of Nations and could feature for Crystal Palace, but Cheikhou Kouyate is still out in Cameroon.
Zaha will compete with Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze and Jordan Ayew for a spot out wide either side of Jean-Philippe Mateta, Odsonne Edouard or Christian Benteke upfront.
Palace remain without experienced sidelined pair James McArthur and James Tomkins.
Hartlepool new arrivals Joe White and Bryn Morris, on loan from Newcastle United and Burton Albion respectively, will compete to make their debuts in midfield.
Forward Marcus Carver also arrived at Victoria Park in January, but he is cup tied after playing in the competition earlier this season for Southport.
Pools captain Nicky Featherstone will miss the trip to Selhurst Park after being sent off against Exeter City in League Two last weekend.
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
Butland; Ward, Andersen, Guehi, Mitchell; Schlupp, Hughes, Gallagher; Olise, Mateta, Eze
Hartlepool United possible starting lineup:
Killip; Sterry, Byrne, Odusina, Liddle, Ferguson; Crawford, White, Morris; Bogle, Molyneux
We say: Crystal Palace 3-1 Hartlepool United
Hartlepool will be hopeful of causing another cup upset, but Palace named a strong side in the third round and should do so again in this game. We think the Eagles will have too much quality despite the visitors' best efforts.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 62.07%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 16.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.
