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Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 44
Apr 23, 2022 at 3pm UK
Pride Park
Bristol City

Derby
1 - 3
Bristol City

Forsyth (61')
Byrne (54')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Weimann (10'), Semenyo (38'), Klose (79')
Williams (9'), Benarous (16'), Semenyo (63')

Preview: Derby County vs. Bristol City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Bristol City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Already-relegated Derby County head into Saturday's Championship fixture with Bristol City looking to retain their pride ahead of dropping into the third tier.

Meanwhile, the visitors, who have put together a rare three-match unbeaten streak, travel to Pride Park with trying to claim 17th position in the standings their realistic aim for the rest of the season.


Match preview

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney after the match on March 1, 2022© Reuters

When Derby's relegation was confirmed on Monday afternoon, Wayne Rooney acknowledged that he felt a feeling of pride rather than overriding disappointment, and it is probably the right attitude to take after such a draining campaign.

Despite all the restrictions and punishments which have come their way, Derby would be in 17th spot had it not been for 21 points worth of deductions, and the reality is that staying in the second tier was always going to be a task which would prove to be too tough.

Away form has done for the Rams, their 1-0 defeat at Queens Park Rangers representing their 14th loss from 22 games on their travels, and you have to go all the way back to January 3 for the last time that they collected a point.

Still, now that the dust has partially settled and a takeover appears to be close to completion, Derby can start to look forward and become optimistic about a new era, one which appears likely to have Rooney still at the helm.

Rooney and his squad will also want to add more points to a startling home record, given the circumstances, with 40 points coming from 21 fixtures at Pride Park.

Bristol City's Andreas Weimann celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 13, 2022© Reuters

On paper, facing an inconsistent Bristol City outfit appears to be the perfect fixture on paper, but the Robins deserve credit for their recent upturn in form.

Remarkably, their current three-match unbeaten run is their longest since September, and the streak has been against the odds with games coming at Stoke City and at home to Sheffield United.

Whether it is a last stand from Nigel Pearson and his squad ahead of a potential parting of the ways or form which offers hope for 2022-23, it is long overdue, and Pearson will hope to see 17th spot achieved by the end of the season.

While Bristol City have scored in their last five outings, Pearson will be far more impressed with just two goals being conceded in three games, a strong improvement for a team who possess the third-worst defensive record in the division.

Derby County Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Bristol City Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D



Team News

Derby County's Tom Lawrence celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on October 19, 2021© Reuters

Derby will have to make do without the suspended Tom Lawrence after the playmaker was sent off for two yellow cards at QPR.

Ravel Morrison should return as a direct replacement for the Welshman, and that may prove to be the only change made by Rooney.

Louie Sibley could also come back into the team on the left flank, taking the place of Jason Knight.

Jay Dasilva is a fitness doubt for Bristol City after his withdrawal against Sheffield United, but Pearson has hinted that the left wing-back could pass a late fitness test.

The Robins boss has the same impression of Antoine Semenyo, which could lead to an unchanged XI being selected for the fixture in the East Midlands.

However, George Tanner, Joe Williams and Andy King are all in contention to return to the squad.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Davies, Cashin, Buchanan; Bielik, Thompson; Ebiowei, Morrison, Knight; Plange

Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Bentley; Cundy, Klose, Atkinson; Scott, James, Weimann, Massengo, Dasilva; Semenyo, Martin


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 2-1 Bristol City

For all of their struggles away from home, Derby have been outstanding at Pride Park, and it makes them clear favourites to claim three points from this fixture. While Bristol City possess a greater sense of belief off the back of their recent improvements, the Rams should have enough to come through this game.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.84%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Bristol City had a probability of 23.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Bristol City win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Bristol City

Derby County
57.1%
Draw
21.4%
Bristol City
21.4%
28
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Derby County manager Wayne Rooney before the match on March 5, 2022
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