We said: FC Midtjylland 1-2 Lazio
Back on the winning trail during the past week, and able to score from a variety of sources, Lazio should take advantage of their hosts' brittle confidence to post a second straight victory in Group H.
They do not tend to travel well - particularly in Europe - but this week provides the perfect opportunity to start improving their sorry stats in that regard.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Midtjylland win with a probability of 43%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Midtjylland win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Midtjylland would win this match.