UEFA Nations League

[monks data]

Nations League | League A

Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Maksimir

Croatia
1 - 2
France

Vlasic (64')
Vlasic (5'), Uremovic (57'), Lovren (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Griezmann (8'), Mbappe (79')
Digne (5'), Pogba (90+1')

Preview: Croatia vs. France - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter

Published: October 12 2020 | 14:30

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:46

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Croatia and France, including team news and predicted lineups.

France travel to Zagreb to face Croatia in the UEFA Nations League looking to extend their unbeaten streak in Group A3.

Croatia welcome the world champions to their home patch on the back of a 2-1 victory over Sweden, a result which keeps them in contention for top spot.

Match preview

France boss Didier Deschamps on November 14, 2019 © Reuters

Having netted seven times against Ukraine earlier in the week, France boss Didier Deschamps would have been confident that his side would continue their hot streak against Portugal on Sunday evening.

However, the European champions became the first team to prevent Les Bleus from scoring in 11 attempts, and it leaves France with work to do in order to claim top spot.

As well as remaining level on points with Portugal, France are aware that Croatia have managed to reduce the gap to four points, leaving the 2018 World Cup winners requiring a strong performance in Zagreb.

To some degree, Deschamps will not mind his players having to show a competitive edge on away territory, aware that it has not always been their strong point in recent years.

Nevertheless, Deschamps will be eager to progress through to the final four of this tournament, ambitions which could hinge on their result on Wednesday.

As far as Croatia are concerned, they will first want to avoid relegation to the second tier, something which would become increasingly likely should they avoid defeat in their next game.

Zlatko Dalic will want to aim higher, however, especially having lost each of their last two encounters to France by a 4-2 scoreline.

The first of those famously came in the World Cup final, but Croatia pushed their rivals harder in Paris last month before eventually succumbing to two set pieces.

Hard-fought wins over Switzerland in a friendly and Sweden in this competition have gotten Dalic's men back on track, but there will be an acknowledgement that they need to start beating the top nations on a regular basis to remain in the upper echelons of the international rankings.

Croatia Nations League form: LLW
Croatia form (all competitions): WWLLWW

France Nations League form: WWD
France form (all competitions): WWWWWD

Team News

France's Olivier Giroud celebrates scoring against Ukraine in an international friendly on October 7, 2020 © Reuters

Having started the last two matches, Olivier Giroud could drop out of the France side.

Deschamps made just two alterations against Portugal, so the likes of Lucas Digne, Moussa Sissoko and Anthony Martial may add some freshness to the team.

Croatia will be without midfielder Marcelo Brozovic, who serves a one-match suspension.

Mario Pasalic is likely to replace the Inter Milan player, while Tin Jedvaj, Borna Barisic and Domagoj Vida are pushing for starts in defence.

Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Jedvaj, Lovren, Vida, Barisic; Kovacic, Modric; Vlasic, Pasalic, Perisic; Petkovic

France possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Pavard, Kimpembe, Varane, Digne; Sissoko, Kante, Pogba; Griezmann; Martial, Mbappe

SM words green background

We say: Croatia 1-3 France

Facing a four-point deficit, Croatia have little choice but to go on the front foot in this game. However, that will only play into the favour of their opponents, whom we expect to capitalise on the break on more than one occasion in this match.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for France had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest France win was 0-1 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.