Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 40.91%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 33.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.