Minnesota United host Houston Dynamo at the Allianz Field on Sunday in gameweek 17 of the MLS Western Conference, with both teams in the hunt for a top seven finish.
The home side are currently sitting in a final series playoff spot and only five points behind them are Sunday's visitors Houston, who have drawn nine of their 17 games this season.
Match preview
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Adrian Heath's side are on a four-game unbeaten run, but their last two fixtures have ended as 2-2 draws featuring late goals.
Just over one week ago Minnesota travelled to Los Angeles FC and they had to rely on a 95th-minute strike from Hassani Dotson to come away with a point, against a side that is just above them in the table.
Last time out Minnesota were on the other end of a late goal, conceding a penalty in the 94th minute which was converted by Vancouver Whitecaps' Cristian Dajome, resulting in a disappointing result for Minnesota as Vancouver are struggling at the bottom of the MLS.
Heath's side have only lost one game in their last 12 outings which was a welcomed turn of form having started this season off with four defeats on the bounce.
Minnesota will be aiming to emulate and better their performance from the 2020 campaign when they reached the semi-finals of the playoffs after finishing fourth in the Western Conference.
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Houston are three points behind Real Salt Lake, who sit in seventh, and will perhaps blame themselves for drawing too many games, especially in recent weeks.
Tab Ramos's side have gone 10 games without a win but in that time they have drawn seven of those clashes, showing their struggles in front of goal.
Dynamo are the one of the lowest-scoring sides in the MLS Western Conference which has been demonstrated further in their last five games, going three of those fixtures without finding the back of the net.
Last time out Houston travelled to Austin and central midfielder Darwin Ceren was sent off after 20 minutes, and his teammates went on to lose that match 3-2, allowing Austin to take a step closer to Houston in the table.
Their last win in the MLS came at the end of May when strikes from Memo Rodriguez and Maximiliano Urruti were enough to beat Vancouver 2-1 at the BBVA Stadium.
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Team News
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Minnesota United defender Michael Boxall was forced off after 29 minutes against San Jose Earthquakes at the beginning of July and has been sidelined ever since, but he is expected to return to action at the beginning of this month.
Attacking midfielder Franco Fragapane is expected to be unavailable for Sunday's fixture as he is suffering from a thigh injury, and he is likely to not return until the end of August.
Finland striker Robin Lod is Minnesota's top goalscorer this season with five, and he has been in good form recently having netted three times in his last four games and provided an assist in the game which he did not score in.
Youngster Niccolo Lemoine has been absent for Houston since the end of June with a groin injury and he is not expected to return to the matchday squad this weekend.
Ceren will serve his suspension on Sunday for the red card he received on Thursday, and Griffin Dorsey is likely to come into the starting lineup in Ceren's absence.
Out of the 27 sides competing across the national MLS, Houston have one of the lowest averages when it comes to shots on target per match, but Urruti is Dynamo's top scorer this season and has one more goal than Minnesota's leading goalscorer.
Corey Baird completed his transfer to Houston from Los Angeles this week, making his debut against Salt Lake on Sunday and his full debut against Austin on Thursday.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Taylor, Dibassy, Kallman, Metanire; Trapp, Hayes; Reynoso, Dotson, Finlay; Lod
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Junqua, Hadebe, Parker, Valentin; Corona, Vera, Dorsey; Picault, Pasher, Baird
We say: Minnesota United 2-0 Houston Dynamo
Based on form, Minnesota are strong favourites for Sunday's clash with Houston, and they have also had a longer rest from their last game, having a one week recovery as opposed to Houston, who had to play on Thursday.
Minnesota are far from secure in the final series playoff places but three points on Sunday will be welcomed as it could move them up a place in the table.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 62.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 16.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.28%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
