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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
England national football team
Nations League | League A
Jun 11, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Wembley Stadium
Italy national football team

England
0 - 0
Italy


Grealish (29'), Ward-Prowse (81')
FT

Locatelli (25'), Gatti (48'), Tonali (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between England and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Saturday's UEFA Nations League clash with England.

Form, Standings, Stats

England

Last Six:
Last Game: Germany 1-1 England
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Italy

Last Six:
Last Game: Italy 2-1 Hungary
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: England 1-0 Italy

 Southgate is facing ever-increasing scrutiny after a pair of dissatisfactory showings in the Nations League, with England's attacking stars simply not clicking into gear, but the Azzurri are not the force they once were either. The young and inexperienced forward line at Mancini's disposal could struggle to break down the Three Lions' stingy defence, and we can envisage the Three Lions finally posting a first win on the board in what may not be the most entertaining affair. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 47.38%. A win for Italy had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result
EnglandDrawItaly
47.38% (0.016999999999996 0.02) 23.37% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01) 29.25% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 60.83% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.52% (0.016999999999996 0.02)40.47% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.14% (0.015999999999998 0.02)62.86% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
England Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.65% (0.012999999999991 0.01)17.35% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.27% (0.024999999999999 0.02)47.73% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.59% (0.0010000000000048 0)26.4% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.43%61.57%
Score Analysis
    England 47.38%
    Italy 29.25%
    Draw 23.36%
EnglandDrawItaly
2-1 @ 9.36% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-0 @ 8.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 7.03% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 5.47% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.1% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 3.64% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 2.39% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 1.8% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.59% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.98%
Total : 47.38%
1-1 @ 10.68%
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 4.58% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.62% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 23.36%
1-2 @ 7.11% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-1 @ 6.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 4.06% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 3.16% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 2.77%
0-3 @ 1.8% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 0.92%
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 29.25%

How you voted: England vs Italy

England
57.6%
Draw
20.3%
Italy
22.1%
443
Head to Head
Jul 11, 2021 8pm
Italy
1-1
England
 Italy win 3-2 on penalties
Bonucci (67')
Barella (47'), Bonucci (55'), Insigne (84'), Chiellini (90+6'), Jorginho (114')
Shaw (2')
Maguire (106')
Mar 27, 2020 8pm
England
P-P
Italy
Mar 27, 2018 8pm
England
1-1
Italy
> Match Report
Mar 31, 2015 7.45pm
Italy
1-1
England
> Match Report
Jun 14, 2014 11pm
England
1-2
Italy
Sturridge (37')
Sterling (90')
Marchisio (35'), Balotelli (50')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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