We said: Cagliari 1-3 Lazio
Curiously, Lazio are the only side yet to draw away from home in Serie A - an unprecedented record for the capital club at this stage of a season.
That run should continue, as they will have the bit between their teeth after successive defeats, while Cagliari are often found wanting at both ends of the pitch.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 54.45%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 21.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.97%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-0 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.33) 
