World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Play-offs - Semi-finals
Mar 24, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Italy0 - 1N. Macedonia
FT(HT: 0-0)
The Match
Match Report
European champions Italy will not compete at the 2022 World Cup after suffering a shock 1-0 defeat at home to North Macedonia in their playoff semi-final on Thursday.
Team News
Ciro Immobile is named as captain in Italy's starting lineup for Thursday's 2022 World Cup Qualifying playoff semi-final against North Macedonia.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Italy and North Macedonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's World Cup 2022 playoff semi-final with North Macedonia.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Italy 2-1 Hungary
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: England vs. Italy
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League A3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Hungary | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Germany | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | England | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Last Game: Gibraltar 0-2 N. Macedonia
Sunday, June 5 at 5pm in Nations League
Sunday, June 5 at 5pm in Nations League
Next Game: N. Macedonia vs. Georgia
Thursday, June 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Thursday, June 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 55.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 17.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.36%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | North Macedonia |
| 55.68% | 26.61% | 17.71% |
| Both teams to score 38.58% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
