A spot in the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores will be up for grabs when Palmeiras host Sao Paulo in the second leg of their quarter-final tie from Allianz Parque on Tuesday.
The reigning champions got an equaliser with 16 minutes to play in the opening leg of this matchup last week, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
Match preview
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When you are on top, it seems like every other team is gunning for you and giving you their very best, and that has been the case lately with Palmeiras in this competition and in the Brasileiro Serie A.
Palestra are winless in their last four matches in all competitions, and Abel Ferreira knows that his side will need to put forth a much better effort in their second leg against Sao Paulo, who have been a thorn in their side all year.
On Saturday, the highest-scoring team in Brazil at the moment were no match for Atletico Mineiro, who took full advantage when Verdao were reduced to 10-men in the 35th minute, winning 2-0, while conceding only one shot throughout the game and only 33% possession.
In the first leg of this tie with their arch-rivals Tricolor Paulista, Palmeiras had just 40% of the ball, firing only two shots on target, but were able to get that all-important away goal to take a narrow advantage.
They may not be in the best form heading into this deciding fixture, but this side will have an edge over Sao Paulo when it comes to experience, having appeared in the last eight of this tournament in four consecutive seasons.
Over that period, Palmeiras have been practically untouchable at home, which explains why they have made the semi-finals of this competition on three successive occasions.
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Whatever Hernan Crespo is telling his team lately, that message is starting to resonate, as Sao Paulo look a lot more like the side that finished fourth in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A last season.
Unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions, they are out of the relegation zone and eager to add to their trophy case in 2021, after capturing the Campeonato Paulista earlier this year.
Allianz Parque can be an intimidating place to play for opposing sides, but Sao Paulo seem to have handled themselves quite well, going unbeaten in their last four visits there, while failing to concede a goal in each of those fixtures and not allowing more than two shots on target in their previous two road matches played there.
The last time Soberano were in the quarter-finals of this competition was in 2016, when they advanced on away goals, despite losing the second leg to Atletico Mineiro.
This team have been fast starters lately, scoring within the opening 15 minutes in their last two league fixtures, although they also needed a late goal in injury time on Saturday to defeat Gremio 2-1.
As strong as their opponents have been offensively, Tricolor Paulista have been just as good defensively so far in this competition, allowing only two goals in the group stage and only three since advancing into the knockout round.
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Team News
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Patrick has not scored in the domestic league, but the Palmeiras midfielder notched the equaliser in the opening leg of this tie, his second of this competition.
Rony, who leads the team with six goals in this tournament, has not scored in any competitive match since May 27, while goalkeeper Weverton has faced 19 shots over his last three games and conceded six goals.
Ferreira gave Renan, Breno Lopes, Marcos Rocha, Dudu and Raphael Veiga a rest in their weekend fixture ahead of the second leg of this matchup, while Ze Rafael and Luan came on as substitutes.
Defensive midfielder Luan Santos scored his second goal of the competition in the opening leg for Sao Paulo, putting him even with winger Emiliano Rigoni for the team lead at this tournament.
Dani Alves, Robert Arboleda, Leo, Rodrigo Nestor and Pablo all sat out of their weekend match with Gremio after starting in the first leg against Palestra.
Centre-back Walce remains on the sidelines with a cruciate ligament rupture and Luciano has been out of the lineup since June with a muscle injury.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Renan, Gomez, Luan; Lopes, Ze Rafael, Danilo, Rocha; Wesley, Veiga; Rony
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Vopli; Dani Alves, Miranda, Reinaldo, Leo; Rojas, Liziero, Luan Santos, Sara; Rigoni, Pablo
We say: Palmeiras 0-0 Sao Paulo (Palmeiras advance on away goals)
Palmeiras are in their worst slump of the season and have struggled to solve a stingy Sao Paulo side, but they have not conceded a goal at home in their last three quarter-final matches in this competition.
Sao Paulo have never lost a match to Verdao at the Copa Libertadores, and although they have held them scoreless three times this season, they have also failed to score themselves in two of their last four visits to Allianz Parque.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 51.44%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
