We said: Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United
As impressive as their recent resurgence has been, Man United were gifted two of their goals against Arsenal by a leaky Gunners backline, and Ten Hag has a couple of concerns over his attacking line fitness and form-wise.
The Red Devils are still finding their feet under Ten Hag, who prepares for a true test of mettle against a Man City side who are almost always in a free-scoring mood at the Etihad, and we can only envisage the champions coming out on top in Sunday's derby.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.62%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 12.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 3-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (3.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.