Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 36.79%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 35.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Arouca |
35.54% (![]() | 27.66% (![]() | 36.79% |
Both teams to score 48.82% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.02% | 56.98% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.12% | 77.88% (![]() |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.48% (![]() | 30.51% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.26% | 66.73% (![]() |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.26% (![]() | 29.74% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.2% | 65.8% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 10.77% 2-1 @ 7.75% 2-0 @ 6.39% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 3.07% 3-0 @ 2.53% 3-2 @ 1.86% 4-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.26% Total : 35.54% | 1-1 @ 13.06% 0-0 @ 9.07% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.7% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.66% | 0-1 @ 11% 1-2 @ 7.92% 0-2 @ 6.67% 1-3 @ 3.2% 0-3 @ 2.7% 2-3 @ 1.9% 1-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.42% Total : 36.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 73 | 23 | 50 | 65 |
2 | Benfica | 27 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 65 | 22 | 43 | 65 |
3 | Porto | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 21 | 32 | 56 |
4 | Braga | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 56 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 46 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 42 |
7 | Casa Pia | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 39 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 36 |
10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Nacional | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 29 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 29 |
14 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 26 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
16 | AVS | 27 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 27 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 17 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 46 | -29 | 15 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |