We said: Gil Vicente 2-1 Chaves
Gil Vicente are carrying better form into this match and have a solid record at home this season, particularly against teams below them in the league standings. Chaves, on the other hand, have failed to win any of their last eight games on the road, and we feel they will struggle to get get anything from this one.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.