The San Jose Earthquakes will look for their first win on their current three-game homestand when they host the Portland Timbers at PayPal Park in Major League Soccer action on Saturday.
The Quakes saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday at the hands of the Seattle Sounders, while the Timbers dropped a 2-1 decision to those same Sounders last Sunday for their third defeat of the season.
Match preview
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In a season full of hope and promise, the 2021 San Jose Earthquakes have not disappointed, earning nine points from their first five games and boasting one of the most offensively-gifted sides so far with 10 goals.
It is their best start to an MLS campaign since 2012, when they won four of their opening five matches en route to a first overall finish in the regular season and a trip to the Western Conference semi-finals.
They are near the top of the Western Conference because of their play offensively, overpowering Dallas and DC United 3-1 and 4-1, respectively, before a dramatic come-from-behind win last weekend at Real Salt Lake.
While the results are all that matters, manager Matias Almeyda and his team still have some fine-tuning to do defensively, giving up 22 shots on goal to this point of the regular season.
On Wednesday they only allowed one shot on target, but that was all Seattle would need to come away with three points.
The Quakes have been able to dictate the pace in many of their games so far, thanks to the strong play of midfielder Jackson Yueill, who has chipped in with two goals.
A team picked by many to contend for the MLS Cup and the CONCACAF Champions League this season, the Portland Timbers have so far failed to live up to those lofty expectations.
The winners of the MLS is Back Tournament in 2020 have already been eliminated from the Champions League and have lost three of their four regular-season games, scoring only four goals so far.
Giovanni Savarese and his team fought hard last Sunday but ultimately could not find an answer until very late in their match against Seattle, with Bill Tuiloma getting their only goal in the 94th minute.
The Timbers have had their share of opportunities to win games this season, creating 47 chances in their opening four matches but they have failed to find that quality needed in the final third.
Last weekend, the almost always dependable Diego Valeri missed two penalty kicks which could have changed their fate against Seattle.
His initial effort in the 59th minute was stopped by the Sounders Stefan Frei, while his re-take went wide.
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Team News
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Father time does not appear to be hampering Quakes striker Chris Wondolowski, who was named the MLS Player of the Week last week with two goals in less than five minutes to rescue three points against Real Salt Lake.
The 38-year-old striker has 11 goals against the Timbers since joining San Jose in 2009, while his teammate Cade Cowell leads the team with three assists to go along with his two goals in 2021.
Portland midfielder Cristhian Paredes is still a few weeks away from recovering from a thigh muscle strain.
Winger Sebastian Blanco and Jaroslaw Niezgoda each have a cruciate ligament rupture, and left-back Ismaila Jome is not expected back this season after rupturing his Achilles tendon.
Diego Valeri will hope to notch his first goal of the season against a side he has had plenty of success against, scoring eight goals against the Quakes in his Timbers' career.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; M. Lopez, Beason, Jungwirth, Abecasis; Remedi, Yueill; Fierro, Tavares; Cowell, Wondolowski
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Sulte; Van Rankin, Mabiala, Zuparic, Bravo; D. Chara, Williamson; Polo, Valeri, Y. Chara; Mora
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 Portland Timbers
Over their last five regular-season matches, these sides have produced 19 goals between them in some highly entertaining encounters.
Even though the Timbers have come out on top in their previous two fixtures versus San Jose, the Quakes are in fine form at home with seven goals from five different players.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 48.41%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
