As the season winds down, both Santos and Fortaleza are on the verge of earning spots in the top two South American club competitions next season, as they get set to face each other on Thursday at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Peixe saw their three-game unbeaten run snapped this weekend, dropping a 2-0 decision to Corinthians, while Leao do Pici are fifth, four points clear of Fluminense and a spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores qualification stage.
Match preview
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A passive approach may work against the likes of Chapecoense, but hanging back and waiting will not work against experienced sides as Fabio Carille, as his players discovered this weekend.
Their 2-0 defeat was actually quite flattering for a team who only had 35% of the possession, firing only one shot on goal themselves as Corinthians completed nearly twice as many passes as Santos.
They come into this contest in a heated race for a spot in the Copa Sudamericana, currently holding down the final position for that competition next year, but only just, with four teams (Athletico Paranaense, Sao Paulo, Atletico Goianiense and Juventude) less than a game behind them in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
It has been an unpredictable year domestically for Santos, who will need to run the gamut for the remainder of the season to match their points total of 2020 (54), currently on 42 points with four matches remaining.
One thing that has remained a constant for this club at home since the late summer has been a zero next to either their opponents' score or there's, having failed to find the back of the net in four of their previous eight league contests but maintaining five clean sheets over that span as well.
They have not won a match when conceding first domestically all year, but at the same time, they have yet to lose a league fixture in which they have drawn first blood.
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A resurgent season for Fortaleza in the top flight hit another high note this weekend, as they were able to keep Palmeiras at bay, scoring a 1-0 win to sit in fifth, just a point back of Corinthians for a guaranteed place in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores next year.
That victory put an end to what has been a difficult stretch for Juan Pablo Vojvoda and his team, who were winless in five successive fixtures before Saturday.
To be where they are in the standings says a lot about the character of this team, who flirted with disaster a season ago, surviving relegation only because they had conceded fewer goals than Vasco da Gama.
The highest that they could finish in 2021 would be third, which would be their best finish to a top-flight campaign since returning to Serie A in 2019.
This team have struggled to find an answer when being scored on, losing their previous two encounters by a combined score of 7-0 and failing to score when conceding first in three consecutive meetings.
On paper, you would think that their chances of finishing in the top five are pretty good, seeing as their final four fixtures are against sides below them in the table, although they have only been able to pick up one point in their previous three contests versus teams who are currently lower than them, losing to America Mineiro and Ceara and drawing Sao Paulo.
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Team News
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Joao Paulo had his three-game shutout string snapped this weekend, though he can hardly be blamed for their defeat as Corinthians fired 11 shots his way, with Jo and Gabriel scoring late in each half for the home side.
Sandry is out with a ruptured knee ligament, John is unlikely to see the field for the remainder of the year due to a meniscal injury and Kevin Malthus remains out with a cruciate ligament issue.
In their previous match with Fortaleza in the middle of August, Carlos Sanchez answered the Lucas Crispim strike almost immediately, equalising less than two minutes after the midfielder for Leao do Pici had given them the lead as the Uruguayan midfielder is second on the team at the moment with five goals in Serie A, just one back of Marinho.
Robson scored his team-leading 10th of the year on Saturday to help Fortaleza bump their slump as he has scored the last two goals for his team.
Daniel Guedes, who is on loan from Santos, has not featured in a match since late October when he came on as a substitute in a 2-1 defeat to Atletico Mineiro in the second leg of their Copa do Brasil tie, which they lost by a 6-1 aggregate score.
This past weekend Matheus Vargas replaced Ederson in the starting 11, while David played in attack with Valentin Depietri relegated to the bench.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Reis, Luiz Felipe, Kaiky; Sanchez, Balieiro, Camacho, Madson, Pirani; Guilherme, Marinho
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Boeck; Jackson, Benevenuto, Titi; Pikachu, Edinho, Jussa, Felipe; Vargas; Robson, Romarinho
We say: Santos 1-0 Fortaleza
Fortaleza could not find the back of the net in three of their previous four road matches in all competitions, and their consistency has been an issue down the stretch of this campaign.
Santos look incredibly comfortable at the back in front of their fans, collecting three shutouts in their previous four home matches, conceding five shots or fewer on target in each of those victories.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 48.05%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 25.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (8.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
