Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 70.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 9.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.2%) and 3-0 (10%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.88%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.