Sparta Rotterdam play host to Emmen on Friday evening with the opportunity to move into the top half of the Eredivisie standings.
On the back of five successive defeats, the visitors are looking for the point which would take them off the bottom of the table.
Match preview
© Reuters
After witnessing his side fail to win any of their opening seven league fixtures, Henk Fraser would have feared for his position at Sparta Rotterdam.
However, two victories in quick succession, which featured eight goals and back-to-back clean sheets, have lifted the mood at Het Kasteel.
Sparta still sit just four points clear of the relegation zone, but dominant victories over RKC Waalwijk and ADO Den Haag have given the club hope of enjoying a comfortable season in mid-table.
Even in defeat to PSV Eindhoven last time out, Sparta showed that they were an improving side, their resolve eventually being broken by a 78th-minute Donyell Malen goal.
While their defensive performances were an issue at the beginning of the campaign, De Kasteelheren appear to have turned a corner with that side of their game.
The same cannot be said of their opponents who have conceded 16 times in their last five outings, but that record does not tell the whole story.
Emmen's most recent fixtures have been against five of the top seven teams in the division, putting their current lowly standing into some context.
Dick Lukkien's side suffered a 5-0 defeat at home to Ajax in their last match, extending their period without a goal to 212 minutes.
Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie form: DDLWWL
Sparta Rotterdam form (all competitions): DDLWWL
Emmen Eredivisie form: DLLLLL
Emmen form (all competitions): LWLLLL
Team News
Having pushed PSV all the way in their last match, Fraser is likely to keep changes to a minimum.
Lennart Thy, who has netted four goals in as many games, will lead the line, but Tim Coremans remains out for Sparta with a knee injury.
Emmen will be without Sergio Pena, Luciano Carty, Robbert de Vos and Lucas Bernadou for this contest.
Donis Avdijaj may be provided with an opportunity from the start after two substitute appearances in succession.
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Abels, Vriends, Heylen, Pinto; Auassar, Harroui; Mijnans, Smeets, Duarte; Thy
Emmen possible starting lineup:
Wiedwald; Bijl, Rhijn, Araujo, Cavlan; Laursen, Veendrop, Chacon, Tibbling; Leeuw, Avdijaj
We say: Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 Emmen
While Emmen are the clear outsiders in this match, we expect them to be competitive on Friday evening. Nevertheless, Sparta's greater cutting edge in attack should prove to be the difference, and the home side will be confident of outclassing their opponents.
Top betting tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 68.9%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 2-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 1-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for a Emmen win it was 1-2 (3.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
