Two sides who have never won the Copa Sudamericana before lock horns in the quarter-finals, with Sporting Cristal hosting Penarol in the first leg on Wednesday.
The Peruvian outfit are unbeaten in each of their last seven games on home soil, while the visitors have lost just one of their last eight matches on the road.
Match preview
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After being eliminated in the group stages of the Copa Libertadores, Sporting Cristal dropped down into the Copa Sudamericana where they were able to beat Arsenal Sarandi 3-2 on aggregate in the last-16.
Christofer Gonzales scored an 85th minute equaliser in the second leg, his seventh goal of the campaign, which helped the Peruvian side prevail in Argentina.
Since then, Roberto Mosquera's men won 2-1 against Carlos Mannucci in the final of the Copa Bicentenario, a domestic competition only formed in 2019.
Cristal have also claimed eight points from their first four matches of the Peruvian Clausura, winning their most recent game 2-1 away at Sport Huancayo last Friday.
This is just the third year that Los Cerveceros have competed in the Copa Sudamericana, with the quarter-finals this season being the furthest they have progressed so far.
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As for Penarol, they have also advanced further than they have ever done before in this competition, after beating bitter Uruguayan rivals Nacional over two legs, progressing on away goals following a 2-2 aggregate result.
The second leg was a feisty affair and ended in dramatic fashion, with three dismissals in added time before Nacional scored a 101st-minute winner, though that was not enough to send them through to the next round.
Penarol – 50-time Uruguayan top-flight champions – currently sit fourth in the Apertura standings and are five points behind league leaders Plaza Colonia. Their only defeat in their 13 league matches so far was against Nacional – 48-time Uruguayan champions – and these two clubs are set to battle yet again for the domestic title this season.
Mauricio Larriera's side will now turn their attention back to the Copa Sudamericana, where they take on a Sporting Cristal side who they last faced in 2016, winning an entertaining 4-3 encounter in the Copa Libertadores group stages.
Penarol will be hoping they can claim another victory against them on Wednesday, as they aim to reach the semi-finals for the first time in their history.
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Team News
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Sporting Cristal have five first-team players ruled out with injuries. Christopher Olivares, Renato Solis and Emile Franco are all unavailable with knee problems, while Jesus Pretell (hamstring) and Marcos Riquelme (muscle) will also miss Wednesday's first leg.
Gerald Tavara is set to keep his place in a defensive midfield role, which will give Jesus Molina and Horacio Calcaterra the licence to roam in the final third.
Alejandro Hohberg, who has scored 10 goals in 20 appearances so far this season, is expected to start on the left wing, with Gonzales set to operate on the opposite flank.
As for Penarol, winger Nicolas Schiappacasse (knee) and goalkeeper Martin Correa (muscle) are both ruled out with injuries, while midfielder Damian Musto is also unavailable after being shown a straight red card in the previous round.
A back four of Giovanni Gonzalez, Fabricio Formiliano, Gary Kagelmacher and Joaquin Piquerez are all set to start again in defence, shielding goalkeeper Kevin Dawson, who has kept 12 clean sheets in 23 appearances across all competitions so far this season.
Striker Agustin Alvarez, who is currently the top scorer in the Copa Sudamericana with eight goals from 10 appearances, is likely to start up front and could be supported in attack by wingers Agustin Canobbio and Facundo Torres.
Sporting Cristal possible starting lineup:
Duarte; Lora, Merlo, Chavez, Loyola; Calcaterra, Castillo; Avila, Gonzalez, Hohberg; Liza
Penarol possible starting lineup:
Dawson; Gonzalez, Formiliano, Kagelmacher, Piquerez; Gargano, Trindade; Canobbio, Ceppelini, Torres; Alvarez
We say: Sporting Cristal 1-1 Penarol
Sporting Cristal and Penarol will be keen to ensure that they remain in the tie for the second leg, so both teams may take a cautious approach to Thursday's game.
With little to separate the two sides, a score draw could be on the cards at the Estadio Nacional in Lima.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 45.71%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Penarol win was 1-2 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
