UEFA Nations League

[monks data]

Nations League | League B

Sep 6, 2020 at 2pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Wales
1 - 0
Bulgaria

Williams (90+4')
Smith (61'), Williams (86')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kostadinov (43')

Preview: Wales vs. Bulgaria - prediction, team news, lineups

By Daniel Lewis, Senior Reporter

Published: September 4 2020 | 11:13

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:45

Sports Mole previews Sunday's UEFA Nations League clash between Wales and Bulgaria in Cardiff, including team news and predicted lineups.

Wales will be looking to make it two wins from two to kick off their UEFA Nations League campaign when they host Bulgaria in Cardiff on Sunday.

The Dragons picked up a late 1-0 win at Finland in their Group B4 opener, while Bulgaria were pegged back at the death in a 1-1 home draw with the Republic of Ireland.

Match preview

Wales manager Ryan Giggs gestures to the fans after the match on November 19, 2019 © Reuters

Thursday's slender win in Helsinki helped maintain Wales's impressive run of form, which now stands at three successive wins without conceding a goal.

Ryan Giggs's men are also now unbeaten in seven games since going down 2-0 to Hungary in a Euro 2020 qualifying match 15 months ago.

That was very much the nadir of Giggs's tenure, but Wales have gone from strength to strength since then, even managing to grind out wins without an array of first-team regulars.

Indeed, Kieffer Moore's 80th-minute winner against Finland came without the likes of Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen on the field - the latter two not even in the squad.

Giggs has put faith in youth, handing out three more debuts at the Olympic Stadium, with Manchester United teen Dylan Levitt looking at home alongside fellow rookie Joe Morrell.

Republic of Ireland's Shane Duffy scores against Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League on September 3, 2020 © Reuters

Having already booked a place in next summer's rearranged European Championship finals, the Dragons will now be looking to finish top of their Nations League Group.

That is also the target for Bulgaria, but they endured a frustrating night against Ireland in their Group B4 opener - Shane Duffy scoring a 93rd-minute equaliser in Sofia.

Bozhidar Kraev had earlier opened the scoring for the Lions, who have won just one of their last 15 matches - a 1-0 victory over the Czech Republic in mid-November.

Even at this early stage, Bulgaria realistically need to avoid defeat on Sunday if they are to keep alive their aspirations of finishing top of the standings and earning promotion to Group A.

Georgi Dermendzhiev's side have a mixed record against Wales in their previous eight encounters, winning three, losing four and drawing one.

The most recent meeting finished in a 1-0 away win for Wales in Euro 2012 qualifying - Bale scoring the only goal for a Dragons side under the management of the late Gary Speed.

Wales Nations League form: W
Wales form (all competitions): WDDWWW

Bulgaria Nations League form: D
Bulgaria form (all competitions): DLLWLD

Team News

Wales forward Gareth Bale pictured in training on September 2, 2020 © Reuters

Bale was taken off at half time against Finland, which Giggs later put down to a precautionary measure that will not rule the Real Madrid forward out of this match.

Moore scored for the third time in six Wales appearances last time out and will lead the line again here, with James - the man who assisted his latest goal - positioned out wide.

Jonny Williams looked a little off the pace on Thursday and may be replaced in the XI on Sunday, with Harry Wilson in line for a recall. David Brooks linked up with the squad on Friday after recovering from a knock and is also in contention.

Elsewhere, Will Vaulks will be pushing for inclusion in central midfield, allowing Giggs to rest one of central-midfield duo Morrell or Levitt.

Bulgaria made wholesale changes for their draw with Ireland, with just five survivors from their 1-0 victory over Czech Republic last November.

Not helped by a number of absentees, Dermendzhiev may well elect to go with a similar XI that started that most recent outing.

Kraev has scored more UEFA Nations League goals (three) than any other player for Bulgaria and will spearhead the attack in Cardiff.

Wales possible starting lineup:
Hennessey; Roberts, Lockyer, Ampadu, Davies; Vaulks, Morrell; Bale, Wilson, James; Moore

Bulgaria possible starting lineup:
Georgiev; Popov, Dimitrov, Zanev, Nedyalkov; Malinov, Kostadinov; Delev, Nedelev, Ivanov; Kraev

SM words green background

We say: Wales 2-0 Bulgaria

Wales have won three games in a row under Giggs for the first time and, even without a number of star men, now have the ability to get the job done. Three more points will be the target for the hosts on Sunday and we can see them comfortably achieving that at an empty Cardiff City Stadium.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 53.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 22.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Wales in this match.