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Women's Super League | Gameweek 12
Jan 25, 2025 at 12pm UK
Villa Park

Aston Villa
2 - 4
Man City

Grant (6'), Aleixandri (46' og.)
Nobbs (48')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Miedema (28', 35'), Fowler (54'), Park (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Women's Super League clash between Aston Villa Women and Manchester City Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Everton 1-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, January 18 at 5.30pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Man City 2-4 Man Utd
Sunday, January 19 at 6.45pm in Women's Super League

We said: Aston Villa Women 1-2 Manchester City Women

Man City may have experienced a poor run of form in the WSL, but we still think that they should have the extra quality required to take three points from Saturday's contest, even though Villa have the ability to make it a tricky game for the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Women win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Manchester City Women had a probability of 37.91% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (4.99%) and 3-1 (4.93%). The likeliest Manchester City Women win was 1-2 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa WomenDrawManchester City Women
40.17% (-2.118 -2.12) 21.92% (0.15 0.15) 37.91% (1.972 1.97)
Both teams to score 69.67% (-0.294 -0.29)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.74% (-0.489 -0.49)30.26% (0.493 0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.49% (-0.591 -0.59)51.5% (0.594 0.59)
Aston Villa Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.93% (-1.006 -1.01)16.07% (1.01 1.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.55% (-1.875 -1.88)45.45% (1.879 1.88)
Manchester City Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.01% (0.64099999999999 0.64)16.99% (-0.637 -0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.89% (1.122 1.12)47.11% (-1.118 -1.12)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa Women 40.17%
    Manchester City Women 37.91%
    Draw 21.92%
Aston Villa WomenDrawManchester City Women
2-1 @ 8.09% (-0.169 -0.17)
1-0 @ 4.99% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.93% (-0.282 -0.28)
2-0 @ 4.56% (-0.194 -0.19)
3-2 @ 4.37% (-0.154 -0.15)
3-0 @ 2.78% (-0.221 -0.22)
4-1 @ 2.25% (-0.213 -0.21)
4-2 @ 2% (-0.143 -0.14)
4-0 @ 1.27% (-0.15 -0.15)
4-3 @ 1.18% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 40.17%
1-1 @ 8.85% (0.125 0.13)
2-2 @ 7.17% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 2.73% (0.075 0.08)
3-3 @ 2.58% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 0.6%
Total : 21.92%
1-2 @ 7.84% (0.271 0.27)
0-1 @ 4.84% (0.231 0.23)
1-3 @ 4.63% (0.253 0.25)
0-2 @ 4.29% (0.29 0.29)
2-3 @ 4.24% (0.089 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.53% (0.221 0.22)
1-4 @ 2.05% (0.153 0.15)
2-4 @ 1.88% (0.078 0.08)
3-4 @ 1.14% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.12% (0.119 0.12)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 37.91%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Man City

Aston Villa Women
16.7%
Draw
33.3%
Manchester City Women
50.0%
6
Head to Head
Oct 20, 2024 12.15pm
Gameweek 5
Man City
2-1
Aston Villa
Hemp (62'), Roord (70')
Nunes da Silva (20')
May 18, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 22
Aston Villa
1-2
Man City
Daly (68')
Parker (90+1')
Fowler (21'), Hemp (77')
Dec 9, 2023 12pm
Gameweek 9
Man City Women
2-1
Aston Villa
Hemp (61', 65')
Turner (7')
Corsie (30'), Mayling (75')
Mar 19, 2023 6pm
Quarter-Finals
Aston Villa
2-1
Man City Women
Corsie (20'), Daly (97')
Jan 21, 2023 11.30am
rhs 2.0
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