Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 33.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.
