We said: Algeria 2-0 Togo
Algeria's formidable home record in AFCON qualifiers, combined with their current winning streak and defensive solidity, makes them strong favourites to secure a victory.
Togo, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, and with their talisman Kodjo Fo-Doh Laba unavailable, they are likely to find it difficult to break down the hosts.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 61.55%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Togo had a probability of 15.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.43%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Togo win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.