Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 7pm UK

Egypt
2 - 0
Malawi

Salah (20'), Marmoush (45+1')
Hamed (68'), Abdelmonem (77'), Hegazy (79'), Kahraba (90')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Davie (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Egypt and Malawi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Egypt

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Belgium 1-2 Egypt
Friday, November 18 at 3pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Malawi

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Bangladesh 1-1 Malawi
Wednesday, March 15 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Even overlooking their home advantage, Egypt head into the weekend on a fine run of form, giving them an extra edge. Malawi must pull one out of the hat if they hope to cause an upset, but we see the hosts prevailing in what should be a thrilling affair. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 67.71%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 10.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.45%) and 3-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.56%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Egypt in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Egypt.

Result
Egypt	Draw	Malawi
67.71% ( -0.56)	21.61% ( 0.33)	10.68% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 35.27% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.65% (

-0.59)

58.34% (

0.59)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.04% (

-0.47)

78.96% (

0.47)

Egypt Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.44% (

-0.39)

16.56% (

0.39)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.66% (

-0.71)

46.34% (

0.71)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

42.27% (

0.09)

57.72% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.55% (

0.05)

89.44% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Egypt 67.7%

Malawi 10.68%

Draw 21.61%

Egypt	Draw	Malawi
1-0 @ 17.18% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 15.45% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.09% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.87% Total : 67.7%	0-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.21) 1-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 2.33% ( 0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 21.61%	0-1 @ 5.25% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.39% Total : 10.68%