Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 21, 2024 at 5pm UK

Konkola Stadium

Zambia
1 - 1
Tanzania

Daka (88')
Kabwe (33'), Grant (45+2'), Banda (45+1')
Kabwe (44')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Msuva (11')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Zambia and Tanzania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Zambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Congo DR 1-1 Zambia
Wednesday, January 17 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	1	3	3
2	Zambia	1	0	1
3	Congo DR	1	0	1
4	Tanzania	1	-3	0

Tanzania

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Morocco 3-0 Tanzania
Wednesday, January 17 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	1	3	3
2	Zambia	1	0	1
3	Congo DR	1	0	1
4	Tanzania	1	-3	0

While Zambia were far from impressive in attack in their first match, their defensive solidity was commendable, and they will likely prioritise keeping a clean sheet in this match against a Tanzania attack that lacks genuine firepower. This has the feel of a low-scoring, tactical match, and we feel that the first goal will likely end up being the winner. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 64%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Tanzania had a probability of 14.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Tanzania win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.

Result
Zambia	Draw	Tanzania
64% ( 0.12)	21.41% ( -0.07)	14.59% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 45.99% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.18% (

0.2)

49.81% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.18% (

0.18)

71.81% (

-0.18)

Zambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.1% (

0.11)

14.9% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.74% (

0.2)

43.26% (

-0.2)

Tanzania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.04% (

0.05)

45.95% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.31% (

0.04)

81.68% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Zambia 63.98%

Tanzania 14.59%

Draw 21.4%

Zambia	Draw	Tanzania
1-0 @ 13.03% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 12.4% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 63.98%	1-1 @ 10.13% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.68% Total : 21.4%	0-1 @ 5.32% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.02% 2-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 1.27% Total : 14.59%