La Liga strugglers Alaves will be aiming to book their spot in the second round of the 2024-25 Copa del Rey when they make the trip to fourth-tier outfit Compostela on Tuesday night.
Alaves will enter the match off the back of a 1-0 defeat to Rayo Vallecano, which left them 16th in the La Liga table, while Compostela drew 0-0 with Real Aviles on Saturday in the Segunda RFEF.
Match preview
Compostela have played in Spain's fourth tier in each of the last four campaigns, finishing seventh last term, while they currently sit 13th in the Segunda RFEF, picking up eight points from nine matches.
Anton Permuy's side will enter this game in strong form, having been victorious in three of their last five games in all competitions, while they claimed a point in a goalless draw with Real Aviles on Saturday.
Compostela actually reached the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey back in 1999-2000, but they have been unable to progress past the first round of the competition since the 2019-20 season.
The hosts will know the size of their task on Tuesday, with Alaves set to provide incredibly difficult opposition, although the La Liga outfit will enter the first-round contest in disappointing form.
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Indeed, Alaves have been beaten in each of their last five matches, including a 1-0 reverse at Rayo Vallecano on Saturday, with the result seeing them drop into 16th position in the table.
The Basque outfit have not been victorious since a 2-1 home success over Sevilla on September 20, while they have conceded 12 times during their last five defeats, which is a concern ahead of their next two against Mallorca and Villarreal.
Luis Garcia's side have only managed one victory on their travels this season, but it was a standout one, winning 2-1 at Real Sociedad at the end of August, while they were only beaten 3-2 at Real Madrid last month.
Alaves' best-ever performance in the Copa del Rey came during the 2016-17 campaign, when they were the runners-up to Barcelona, but they have made the round of 16 in each of their last two campaigns.
The Blue and Whites do have a recent first-round exit in the competition to their name, though, having failed to progress past this stage of the tournament in 2019-20, losing to fourth-tier outfit Jaen.
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Team News
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Compostela will be captained by 29-year-old midfielder Samuel Rodriguez, and the home side are expected to start with a full-strength XI on Tuesday night, as they will be sensing an opportunity against an out-of-form side.
Santi de Prado and Hugo Matos are expected to feature in the final third of the field, with 38-year-old Manu Berreiro set to provide an attacking option from the bench for the home team here.
As for Alaves, head coach Garcia will ring the changes from the clash with Rayo Vallecano on Saturday.
Jesus Owono is expected to be given the nod between the sticks, while Antonio Blanco, Joan Jordan, Asier Villalibre and Stoichkov are likely to be among those to earn starting roles on Tuesday night.
Alaves are set to be without the services of Santiago Mourino, who was forced off in the first half of the clash with Rayo Vallecano through injury, while Hugo Novoa and Aleksandar Sedlar are also on the sidelines.
However, the La Liga club's squad will be boosted by the returns of Kike Garcia and Abdel Abqar following suspensions.
Compostela possible starting lineup:
Rabanillo; Gonzalez, Casas, Soto, Rivas; Selasi, Cano, Rodriguez; Gonzalez, Matos, De Prado
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Owono; Tenaglia, Pica, Abqar, Sanchez; Jordan, Benavidez, Blanco; Stoichkov, Villalibre, Rebbach
We say: Compostela 0-2 Alaves
Alaves were beaten by a fourth-tier side at this stage of the 2019-20 competition, but we are struggling to see a defeat for the La Liga outfit here, even taking into consideration their struggles in Spain's top flight.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Compostela had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.15%) and 1-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Compostela win it was 1-0 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Alaves in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Alaves.
