With a win confirming their spot in Europe for the 2022-23 season, Monaco's final Ligue 1 home game of the campaign sees them welcome Brest to the Stade Louis II on Saturday.
Les Monegasques sunk dethroned champions Lille 2-1 on matchday 36, whereas Les Pirates went down 1-0 at home to top-five hopefuls Strasbourg.
Match preview
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For a short while, Monaco were seemingly condemned to a season without continental action as Philippe Clement struggled to find his feet with the principality side, but a remarkable winning run means that Les Monegasques are potentially only 90 minutes away from sealing a return to the Champions League.
Monaco had starboy Aurelien Tchouameni to thank for their 2-1 success over Lille last time out, as the 22-year-old's stock continued to rise with two thunderbolts to cancel out Angel Gomes's equaliser - propelling Les Monegasques to their eighth win in a row in Ligue 1.
Clement's side now have their top-three destiny in their own hands as they occupy third place in the table, while also knowing that at least one of Marseille and Rennes will drop points in their mammoth encounter, but Nice are still just two points behind Les Monegasques as they prepare to take on Lille.
The fight for Champions League football will likely go right down to the wire on the final matchday, but victory over Brest would at least ensure that Monaco would be condemned to Europa Conference League football at the very worst before they travel to Lens next weekend, which is hardly a walk in the park.
Monaco's sensational streak of victories has also seen them average over two goals per game, while they have only let in one goal in their last four Ligue 1 games at the Stade Louis II - a resilience which a shot-shy Brest side are fighting an uphill battle to wear down.
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Now simply enjoying a mere stroll to the finish line, Brest threatened to break into the top half of the rankings with a three-game winning streak earlier in the spring period, but Strasbourg made Les Pirates top-10 task that little bit more difficult last time out.
With 72 minutes on the clock, Kevin Gameiro struck the only goal of the game to condemn Michel Der Zakarian's side to defeat - although Paul Lasne came close to making the net ripple for the hosts - who can still usurp 2020-21 champions Lille in the rankings with only 180 minutes left to play.
Ahead of Saturday's fixtures, Brest find themselves 11th in the table and only three adrift of Les Dogues - as well as being six behind Nantes, who should not be in any danger of being leapfrogged - and a home clash with 20th-placed Bordeaux represents the perfect way for Brest to end a wholly positive campaign.
However, Der Zakarian's side have made a habit of winning one then losing one away from home recently - their last away game ended in victory at a struggling Metz side - and ironically, their fixtures with Monaco have followed a similar pattern.
Indeed, Brest have prevailed in both of their meetings with Monaco at the Stade Francis Le-Ble since 2019 without conceding - including a 2-0 success on Halloween earlier this season - but they have suffered back-to-back losses on the Stade Louis II turf in that time period as well.
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Team News
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Monaco picked up no fresh injury concerns in the win over Lille, and Gelson Martins would return from suspension for this battle, but the Portuguese attacker is out with a groin issue anyway.
Perennial absentee Cesc Fabregas also remains out of contention alongside ACL victim Krepin Diatta, although neither man would be likely to force their way into the XI at present.
Clement has no reason to make any alterations from the side that edged past Lille, where 21-goal striker Wissam Ben Yedder will aim to keep his Golden Boot hopes alive - the Frenchman currently sits three behind compatriot Kylian Mbappe's 24 but boasts an eye-catching 39% conversion rate.
As for Brest, Romain Del Castillo will serve the second of a two-game ban following his sending off against Clermont, allowing Franck Honorat and Youcef Belaili to hold the fort out wide.
Defender Julien Faussurier and goalkeeper Sebastien Cibois remain sidelined with finger and Achilles troubles respectively, but as is the case with Monaco, the visitors have most of their big-hitters fit and available for Sunday's clash.
Despite last weekend's defeat to Strasbourg, Der Zakarian will surely be tempted to stick with an unchanged XI, but Lilian Brassier is waiting in the wings if the Pirates boss opts for a more defensive structure.
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Aguilar, Maripan, Badiashile, Henrique; Tchouameni, Fofana; Vanderson, Volland, Golovin; Ben Yedder
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Herelle, Chardonnet, Duverne; Honorat, Lasne, Belkebla, Belaili; Mounie, Satriano
We say: Monaco 2-0 Brest
Brest certainly have Monaco's number when it comes to fixtures on their own patch, but getting a result against Les Monegasques - who will out for vengeance - away from home is not their speciality.
Clement's side cannot expect to break their opponents down at will, but the merciless hosts should still get the job done with professionalism to remain in the driving seat for Champions League football ahead of the final day.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 67.41%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Brest had a probability of 13.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.33%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
