Hong Kong may feel a little hard done by in their opener, but on Friday, they could have their hands full against a determined Iranian side eager to book a spot in the knockout stage as quickly as possible.
Iran seem to have found their scoring touch in 2024, netting 11 times in just three matches, and we expect them to bury the many chances they are likely to have against a passive Hong Kong side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Iran had a probability of 36.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Iran win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.07) 
